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Increasing Returns and the Evolution of Violent Crime: The Case of Columbia

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Author Info
Alejandro Gaviria (Universidad de los Andes)

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Abstract

This paper puts forth an explanation of the recent escalation of violent crime in Colombia. The paper considers three implicit models that isolate different types of externalities among criminals. In the first model criminals make crime more appealing to nearby residents by congesting the law enforcement system and hence lowering the probability of punishment. In the second model the interaction of career criminals and local crooks speeds up the diffusion of criminal know-how and criminal technology. In the third model the daily contact of youth with criminal adults and criminal peers results in the erosion of morals and hence in a greater predisposition toward crime. The paper shows that a myriad empirical evidence -both statistical and anecdotal- lends support to the previous models in general and to the congestion-in-law-enforcement model in particular.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, UC San Diego in its series University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series with number 1998-14.

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Date of creation: 01 May 1998
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:1998-14

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Keywords: externalities; probability;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Freeman, Scott & Grogger, Jeffrey & Sonstelie, Jon, 1996. "The Spatial Concentration of Crime," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 216-231, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Glaeser, Edward L & Sacerdote, Bruce & Scheinkman, Jose A, 1996. "Crime and Social Interactions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(2), pages 507-48, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Gary S. Becker, 1968. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 169. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Glaeser, Edward L & Hedi D. Kallal & Jose A. Scheinkman & Andrei Shleifer, 1992. "Growth in Cities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(6), pages 1126-52, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    • Edward L. Glaeser & Hedi D. Kallal & Jose A. Scheinkman & Andrei Shleifer, 1991. "Growth in Cities," NBER Working Papers 3787, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Romer, Paul, 1993. "Idea gaps and object gaps in economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 543-573, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Inwood, K. & Stengos, T., 1990. "Discontinuities In Canadian Economic Growth, 1870-1985," Working Papers 1990-4, University of Guelph, Department of Economics.
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  8. Sah, Raaj K, 1991. "Social Osmosis and Patterns of Crime," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1272-95, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Ehrlich, Isaac, 1996. "Crime, Punishment, and the Market for Offenses," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 43-67, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Mauro, Paolo, 1995. "Corruption and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(3), pages 681-712, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Andvig, Jens Chr. & Moene, Karl Ove, 1990. "How corruption may corrupt," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 63-76, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Joshua D. Angrist & Adriana Kugler, 2005. "Rural Windfall or a New Resource Curse? Coca, Income, and Civil Conflict in Colombia," NBER Working Papers 11219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Fábio Augusto Reis Gomes & Lourenço Senne Paz, 2004. "The Determinants Of Criminal Victimization In São Paulo State," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 147, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  3. Carlos Esteban Posada & Francisco González, 2000. "El gasto en defensa, justicia y seguridad," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 2(2), pages 53-75, January-J. [Downloadable!]
  4. Eggert, Håkan & Lokina, Razack B, 2005. "Regulatory Compliance in Lake Victoria Fisheries," Working Papers in Economics 175, Göteborg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Alejandro Gaviria & Carmen Pagés-Serra, 1999. "Patterns of Crime Victimization in Latin America," RES Working Papers 4186, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  6. Vladimir Kühl Teles & Joaquim P. Andrade, 2005. "Crime And Punishment With Habit Formation," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 090, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Felipe Barrera Osorio, 2004. "Dynamics and causes of crime in Colombia," INFORMES DE INVESTIGACIÓN 002387, FEDESARROLLO. [Downloadable!]
  8. Cathy McIlwaine & Caroline O. N. Moser, 2001. "Violence and social capital in urban poor communities: perspectives from Colombia and Guatemala," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(7), pages 965-984. [Downloadable!]
  9. Leonardo Bonilla Mejía, 2009. "Demografía, juventud y homicidios en Colombia, 1979-2006," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO SOBRE ECONOMÍA REGIONAL 005941, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ECONOMÍA REGIONAL. [Downloadable!]
  10. Philip J. Cook & Jens Ludwig, 2005. "Assigning Deviant Youths to Minimize Total Harm," NBER Working Papers 11390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Ana María Ibáñez & Andrés Moya, 2006. "The Impact of Intra-State Conflict on Economic Welfare and Consumption Smoothing: Empirical Evidence for the Displaced Population in Colombia," HiCN Working Papers 23, Households in Conflict Network. [Downloadable!]
  12. Alejandro Gaviria & Carmen Pagés-Serra, 1999. "Patrones de victimización por el hampa en América Latina," RES Working Papers 4187, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  13. Paolo Buonanno & Daniel Montolio Estivill, 2005. "Identifying the Socioeconomic Determinants of Crime in Spanish Provinces," Working Papers in Economics 138, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia. [Downloadable!]
  14. Fernando Gaitán Daza, 2001. "Multicausalidad, impunidad y violencia: una visión alternativa," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 3(5), pages 78-105, July-Dece. [Downloadable!]
  15. Mauricio Cárdenas, 2002. "Reversal of Fortune," INVESTIGACIÓN ECONÓMICA EN COLOMBIA 003471, FUNDACIÓN PONDO. [Downloadable!]
  16. Francisco González & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2001. "Criminalidad, violencia y gasto público en defensa, justicia y seguridad en Colombia," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 3(4), pages 78-102, January-J. [Downloadable!]
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