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Currency Crises, Capital Account Liberalization, and Selection Bias

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Author Info
Reuven Glick (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
Xueyan Guo (University of California Santa Cruz Economics Department)
Michael Hutchison (University of California Santa Cruz Economics Department)

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Abstract

Are countries with unregulated capital flows more vulnerable to currency crises? Efforts to answer this question properly must control for ÃÂ"self selectionÃÂ" bias since countries with liberalized capital accounts may also have more sound economic policies and institutions that make them less likely to experience crises. We employ a matching and propensity score methodology to address this issue in a panel analysis of developing countries. Our results suggest that, after controlling for sample selection bias, countries with liberalized capital accounts experience a lower likelihood of currency crises. That is, when two countries have the same likelihood of allowing free movement of capital (based on historical evidence and a very similar set of economic and political characteristics)ÃÂand one country imposes controls and the other does not-- the country without controls has a lower likelihood of experiencing a currency crisis. This result is at odds with the conventional wisdom and suggests that the benefits of capital market liberalization for external stability are substantial.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz in its series Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series with number 1008.

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Date of creation: 01 Jun 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucscec:1008

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  5. Hali J. Edison & Michael W. Klein & Luca Ricci & Torsten Sloek, 2002. "Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Performance: Survey and Synthesis," NBER Working Papers 9100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Mauro, Paolo, 1995. "Corruption and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(3), pages 681-712, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Glick, Reuven & Hutchison, Michael, 2005. "Capital controls and exchange rate instability in developing economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 387-412, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Prasad, Eswar & Rajan, Raghuram G., 2008. "A Pragmatic Approach to Capital Account Liberalization," IZA Discussion Papers 3475, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Paul R. Bergin & Reuven Glick, 2006. "Global price dispersion: are prices converging or diverging?," Working Paper Series 2006-50, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Klüh, Ulrich, 2005. "Safety Net Design and Systemic Risk: New Empirical Evidence," Discussion Papers in Economics 662, University of Munich, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Hiro Ito, 2004. "Is Financial Openness a Bad Thing? An Analysis on the Correlation Between Financial Liberalization and the Output Performance of Crisis-Hit Economies," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series 1046, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz. [Downloadable!]
  5. Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2005. "What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions," NBER Working Papers 11370, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. repec:att:wimass:192054 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Levchenko, Andrei A. & Rancière, Romain & Thoenig, Mathias, 2008. "Growth and Risk at the Industry Level: the Real Effects of Financial Liberalization," CEPR Discussion Papers 6715, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Fecht, Falko & Grüner, Hans Peter & Hartmann, Philipp, 2008. "Financial integration, specialization and systemic risk," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,23, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  9. Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, 2006. "Evaluating Foreign Exchange Market Intervention: Self-Selection, Counterfactuals and Average Treatment Effects," EPRU Working Paper Series 06-04, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. J L Ford & Bagus Santoso & N J Horsewood, 2007. "Asian Currency Crises: Do Fundamentals still Matter? A Markov-Switching Approach to Causes and Timing," Discussion Papers 07-07, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham. [Downloadable!]
  11. Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, 2008. "Evaluating Foreign Exchange Market Intervention: Self-selection, Counterfactuals and Average Treatment Effects," Working Papers 022008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
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