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Some Pitfalls in Testing the Law of One Price in Commodity Markets

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Author Info
Llad Phillips (University of California, Santa Barbara)
John Pippenger (University of California, Santa Barbara)
Abstract

Several articles find no support for the law of one price (LOP) in commodity markets. Only a few articles find some support. A rejection of the LOP would strike at the heart of economic theory. A rejection would suggest that firms do not maximize wealth and households do not maximize utility. Our objective here is to show how four common pitfalls can cause tests of the LOP to fail when in fact the LOP holds. All tests of the LOP that fail to support the theory fall in to at least one pitfall and many fall in to three or four. All of these pitfalls are the result of ignoring important practical implications of arbitrage.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara in its series University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series with number wp4-05.

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Date of creation: 02 Aug 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsbec:wp4-05

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Keywords: law of one price commodity markets

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Officer, Lawrence H., 1986. "The law of one price cannot be rejected: Two tests based on the tradable/nontradable price ratio," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 159-182. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Parsley, David C & Wei, Shang-Jin, 1996. "Convergence to the Law of One Price without Trade Barriers or Currency Fluctuations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(4), pages 1211-36, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David, 1994. "Purchasing power parity yet again: evidence from spatially separated commodity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 637-657, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Richardson, J. David, 1978. "Some empirical evidence on commodity arbitrage and the law of one price," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 341-351, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Engel, Charles & Rogers, John H, 2001. "Violating the Law of One Price: Should We Make a Federal Case Out of It?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(1), pages 1-15, February.
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  6. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P. & Chowdhury, Ibrahim, 2004. "Nonlinear dynamics in deviations from the law of one price: a broad-based empirical study," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-25, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Goodwin, Barry K., 1990. "Empirically testing the law of one price in an international commodity market: A rational expectations application to the natural rubber market," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 4(2), pages 165-177, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Goodwin, Barry K. & Grennes, Thomas & Wohlgenant, Michael K., 1990. "Testing the law of one price when trade takes time," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 21-40, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. A. Protopapadakis, Aris & R. Stoll, Hans, 1986. "The Law of One Price in international commodity markets: A reformulation and some formal tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 335-360, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Protopapadakis, Aris & Stoll, Hans R, 1983. " Spot and Futures Prices and the Law of One Price," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1431-55, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Benninga, Simon & Protopapadakis, Aris, 1988. "The equilibrium pricing of exchange rates and assets when trade takes time," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 129-149, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Marcelo de Paiva Abreu & Marcelo Cunha Medeiros & Rogério L.F. Werneck, 2003. "Formação de preços de commodities: padrões de vinculação dos preços internos ao externos," Textos para discussão 474, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
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