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The Equity Premium: A Deeper Puzzle

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Author Info
Francisco Azeredo (University of California - Santa Barbara)
Abstract

Traditional pre-1930 consumption measures understate the extent of serial correlation in the U.S. annual real growth rate of per capita consumption of non-durables and services due to measurement limitations in the construction of their major components. Under alternative measures proposed in this study, the serial correlation of consumption growth is found to be 0.32, contrary to the original estimate of -0.14. This new evidence implies that the class of dynamic general equilibrium models studied by Mehra and Prescott [12] generates negative equity premium for reasonable risk-aversion levels, thus further exacerbating the equity premium puzzle.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara in its series University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series with number 13-07.

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Date of creation: 01 Sep 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsbec:13-07

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Keywords: persistence; consumption growth; equity premium puzzle; neoclassical growth model;

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  1. Grossman, Sanford J & Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 222-27, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Kevin D. Salyer, 1988. "Overlapping Generations and Representative Agent Models of the Equity Premia: Implications from a Growing Economy," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 21(3), pages 565-78, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. John Donaldson & Rajnish Mehra, 2007. "Risk Based Explanations of the Equity Premium," NBER Working Papers 13220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 2003. "The equity premium in retrospect," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 889-938 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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