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Effectiveness of Official Daily Foreign Exchange Market Intervention Operations in Japan

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Author Info
Rasmus Fatum (University of Alberta; University of California, Santa Cruz)
Michael Hutchison (University of California Santa Cruz Economics Department)

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Abstract

Japanese official intervention in the foreign exchange market is of by far the largest magnitude in the world, despite little or no evidence that it is effective in moving exchange rates. Up until recently, however, official data on intervention has not been available for Japan. This paper investigates the effectiveness of intervention using recently published official daily data and an event study methodology. The event study better fits the stochastic properties of intervention and exchange rate data, i.e. intense and sporadic bursts of intervention activity juxtaposed against a yen/dollar rate continuously changing, than standard time-series approaches. Focusing on daily Japanese and US official intervention operations, we identify separate intervention "episodes" and analyze the subsequent effect on the exchange rate. Using the non-parametric sign test and matched-sample test, we find strong evidence that sterilized intervention systemically affects the exchange rate in the short-run (less than one month). This result holds even when intervention is not associated with (simultaneous) interest rate changes, whether or not intervention is "secret" (in the sense of no official reports or rumors of intervention reported over the newswires), and against other robustness checks. Large-scale (amounts over $1 billion) intervention, coordinated with the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve working in unison, give the highest success rate. During the period that the Bank of Japan has reduced interbank rates to 0.5 percent and below (from September 1995), however, only one intervention operation has been coordinated with the Fed and the success rate has been correspondingly low.

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Paper provided by Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz in its series Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series with number 1034.

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Date of creation: 24 Nov 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:scciec:1034

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Takatoshi Ito, 2002. "Is Foreign Exchange Intervention Effective?: The Japanese Experiences in the 1990s," NBER Working Papers 8914, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Campbell, Cynthia J. & Wesley, Charles E., 1993. "Measuring security price performance using daily NASDAQ returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 73-92, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Ramana Ramaswamy & Hossein Samiei, 2000. "The Yen-Dollar Rate - Have Interventions Mattered?," IMF Working Papers 00/95, International Monetary Fund.
  6. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Svensson, Lars-E-O, 2001. "The Zero Bound in an Open Economy: A Foolproof Way of Escaping from a Liquidity Trap," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(S1), pages 277-312, February. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Takatoshi Ito & V. Vance Roley, 1986. "News from the U.S. and Japan: which moves the yen/dollar exchange rate?," Research Working Paper 86-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
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  9. Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, . "Is Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention Effective After All? An Event Study Approach," EPRU Working Paper Series 99-09, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Reuven Glick & Michael Hutchison, 1992. "Monetary policy, intervention, and exchange rates in Japan," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
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  11. Glick, Reuven & Hutchison, Michael M., 2000. "Foreign reserve and money dynamics with asset portfolio adjustment: international evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 229-247, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Rasmus Fatum, 2002. "Post-Plaza intervention in the DEM/USD exchange rate," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 35(3), pages 556-567, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Oscar Bernal, 2006. "Do interactions between political authorities and central banks influence FX interventions? Evidence from Japan," Working Papers DULBEA 06-03.RS, Université libre de Bruxelles, Department of Applied Economics (DULBEA). [Downloadable!]
  2. Balazs Egert & Lubos Komarek, 2005. "Foreign Exchange Interventions and Interest Rate Policy in the Czech Republic: Hand in Glove?," Working Papers 2005/07, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Owen F. Humpage, 2003. "Government intervention in the foreign exchange market," Working Paper 0315, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  4. Alain P. Chaboud & Owen F. Humpage, 2003. "An analysis of Japanese foreign exchange interventions, 1991-2002," Working Paper 0309, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  5. Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, 2005. "Foreign Exchange Intervention and Monetary Policy in Japan, 2003-2004," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d05-93, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Gabriele Galati & Patrick Higgins & Owen F. Humpage & William Melick, 2006. "Option prices, exchange market intervention, and the higher moment expectations channel: a user’s guide," Working Paper 0618, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "An analysis of recent studies of the effect of foreign exchange intervention," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 685-718. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Christopher J. Neely, 2006. "Identifying the effects of U.S. intervention on the levels of exchange rates," Working Papers 2005-031, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  9. Dimitrios A. Sideris, 2007. "Foreign Exchange Intervention and Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates," Working Papers 56, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
  10. Roberto Guimaraes & Cem Karacadag, 2005. "The Empirics of Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Market Countries The Cases of Mexico and Turkey," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 68, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  11. Kathryn M.E. Dominguez & Freyan Panthaki, 2007. "The Influence of Actual and Unrequited Interventions," NBER Working Papers 12953, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Takatoshi Ito, 2007. "Myths and reality of foreign exchange interventions: an application to Japan," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 133-154. [Downloadable!]
  13. Balázs Égert & Maroje Lang, 2005. "Foreign Exchange Interventions in Croatia and Turkey: Should We Give a Damn?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp755, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  14. Oscar Bernal & Jean-Yves Gnabo, 2007. "Talks, financial operations or both? Generalizing central banks’ FX reaction functions," Working Papers DULBEA 07-03.RS, Université libre de Bruxelles, Department of Applied Economics (DULBEA). [Downloadable!]
  15. Alain P. Chaboud & Owen Humpage, 2005. "An assessment of the impact of Japanese foreign exchange intervention: 1991-2004," International Finance Discussion Papers 824, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  16. Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2006. "Implicit Bands in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," Working Papers 2006-19, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  17. Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, 2006. "Evaluating Foreign Exchange Market Intervention: Self-Selection, Counterfactuals and Average Treatment Effects," EPRU Working Paper Series 06-04, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  18. Roberto Pereira Guimarães & Cem Karacadag, 2004. "The Empirics of Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Markets: The Cases of Mexico and Turkey," IMF Working Papers 04/123, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  19. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez & Freyan Panthaki, 2007. "The Influence of Actual and Unrequited Interventions," Working Papers 561, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan. [Downloadable!]
  20. Michael R. King & Rasmus Fatum, 2005. "The Effectiveness of Official Foreign Exchange Intervention in a Small Open Economy: The Case of the Canadian Dollar," Working Papers 05-21, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  21. Christopher J. Neely, 2007. "Central bank authorities’ beliefs about foreign exchange intervention," Working Papers 2006-045, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  22. Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, 2008. "Evaluating Foreign Exchange Market Intervention: Self-selection, Counterfactuals and Average Treatment Effects," Working Papers 022008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
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