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Time Series Analysis of U.S.-East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962-1992

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Author Info
Terrie Carolan
Nirvikar Singh (University of California, Santa Cruz)

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Abstract

We examine the composition of bilateral trade between the United States and each of eight Asian Pacific economies from 1962 to 1992. Two complementary time series analyses of individual commodities at the SITC four-digit level indicate that significant change occurred in trade composition during this period. For the eight bilateral trade relationships, commodities representing from fifty to seventy percent of 1992 dollar trade volume have shown statistically significant change in the magnitude and, in some cases, in the direction of net trade balance, over the thirty-year period. Results support the conclusion that changes in trade patterns in both low-tech industries, such as textiles and clothing, and more high-tech industries, such as electronic parts and electronic goods were important in these so-called Asian tigers as their economies advanced.

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Paper provided by Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz in its series Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series with number 1033.

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Date of creation: 01 May 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:scciec:1033

Note: oai:cdlib1.org:sccie-1033
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Keywords: international trade flows; time series; ADF; KPSS; trends; economic development;

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  1. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 1996. "Further Investigation of the Uncertain Unit Root in GNP," NBER Technical Working Papers 0206, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Gagnon, Joseph E & Rose, Andrew K, 1995. "Dynamic Persistence of Industry Trade Balances: How Pervasive Is the Product Cycle?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(2), pages 229-48, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 1996. "Deterministic, Stochastic, and Segmented Trends in Aggregate Output: A Cross-Country Analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 134-62, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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