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What Do We Know about Recent Exchange Rate Models? In-Sample Fit and Out-of-Sample Performance Evaluated

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Author Info
Yin-Wong Cheung (University of California, Santa Cruz)
Menzie Chinn (University of California, Santa Cruz)
Antonio Garcia Pascual (IMF and University of Munich)

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Abstract

Previous assessments of nominal exchange rate determination have focused upon a narrow set of models typically of the 1970's vintage, including monetary and portfolio balance models. In this paper we re-assess the in-sample fit and out-of-sample prediction of a wider set of models that have been proposed in the last decade, namely interest rate parity, productivity based models, and "behavioral equilibrium exchange rate" models. These models are compared against a benchmark model, the Dornbusch-Frankel sticky price monetary model. First, the parameter estimates of the models are compared against the theoretically predicted values. Second, we conduct an extensive out-of-sample forecasting exercise, using the last eight years of data to determine whether our in-sample conclusions hold up. We examine model performance at various forecast horizons (1 quarter, 4 quarters, 20 quarters) using differing metrics (mean squared error, direction of change), as well as the "consistency" test of Cheung and Chinn (1998). We find that no model fits the data particularly well, nor does any model consistently out-predict a random walk, even at long horizons. There is little correspondence between how well a model conforms to theoretical priors and how well the model performs in a prediction context. However, we do confirm previous findings that out-performance of a random walk is more likely at long horizons.

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Paper provided by Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz in its series Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series with number 1010.

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Date of creation: 01 Oct 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:scciec:1010

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Related research
Keywords: exchange rates; monetary model; productivity; interest rate parity; behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model; forecasting performance;

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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Buncic, Daniel & Melecky, Martin, 2007. "An estimated New Keynesian policy model for Australia," MPRA Paper 4138, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Menzie D. Chinn & Michael J. Moore, 2008. "Private Information and a Macro Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Novel Data Set," NBER Working Papers 14175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Bofinger, Peter & Leitner, Johannes & Schmidt, Robert, 2004. "Biases of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts: Psychological Explanations and an Experimentally-Based Comparison to Novices," CEPR Discussion Papers 4230, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Melecky, M, 2007. "Currency Preferences in a Tri-Polar Model of Foreign Exchange," MPRA Paper 4186, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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