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External Adjustment

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Author Info
Maurice Obstfeld (University of California, Berkeley)

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Abstract

Gross stocks of foreign assets have increased rapidly relative to national outputs since 1990, and the short-run capital gains and losses on those assets can amount to significant fractions of GDP. These fluctuations in asset values render the national income and product account measure of the current account balance increasingly inadequate as a summary of the change in a country's net foreign assets. Nonetheless, unusually large current account imbalances, especially deficits, should remain high on policymakers' list of concerns, even for the richer and less credit-constrained countries. Extreme imbalances signal the need for large and perhaps abrupt real exchange rate changes in the future, changes that might have undesired political and financial consequences given the incompleteness of domestic and international asset markets. Furthermore, of the two sources of the change in net foreign assets -- the current account and the capital gain on the net foreign asset position -- the former is better understood and more amenable to policy influence. Systematic government attempts to manipulate international asset values in order to change the net foreign asset position could have a destabilizing effect on market expectations.

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Paper provided by Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley in its series Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series with number 1052.

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Date of creation: 01 Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:ciders:1052

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Related research
Keywords: Current account; external adjustment; balance of payments; foreign asset position; international diversification; capital flows to developing countries;

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  1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2000. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Working Papers 7777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals and Sudden Stops," NBER Working Papers 10276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth & Savastano, Miguel, 2003. "Debt intolerance," MPRA Paper 13932, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, . "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Rudi Dornbusch, 2002. "A Primer on Emerging-Market Crises," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 743-754 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2004. "The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited," NBER Working Papers 10869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Ventura, Jaume, 2002. "Bubbles and Capital Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers 3657, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2004. "Financial Globalization and Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4745, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Pentti J.K. Kouri & Jorge B. de Macedo, 1978. "Exchange Rates and the International Adjustment Process," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 488, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  11. Lane, Philip R., 1999. "Do International Investment Income Flows Smooth Income?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2123, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Branson, William H. & Henderson, Dale W., 1985. "The specification and influence of asset markets," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 15, pages 749-805 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Alan C. Stockman & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1987. "Capital Flows, Investment, and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 1598, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. repec:rus:hseeco:123922 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Svensson, Lars E O, 1988. "Trade in Risky Assets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 375-94, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Volker Nocke & Stephen Yeaple, 2004. "An Assignment Theory of Foreign Direct Investment," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-003, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Philippe Martin & Helene Rey, 2001. "Financial Super-Markets: Size Matters for Asset Trade," NBER Working Papers 8476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Paul R. Krugman, 1981. "Consumption Preferences, Asset Demands, and Distribution Effects in International Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 0651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Capital mobility in the world economy: Theory and measurement," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 55-103, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Alan C. Stockman, 1989. "Fiscal Policies and International Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 1961, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Maurice Obstfeld, 2004. "Globalization, Macroeconomic Performance, and the Exchange Rates of Emerging Economies," NBER Working Papers 10849, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2005. "International Financial Adjustment," International Finance 0505004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  26. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility," NBER Working Papers 7418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad, 2004. "Growth Volatility and Financial Liberalization," NBER Working Papers 10560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  29. Aasim M. Husain & Ashoka Mody & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "Exchange Rate Regime Durability and Performance in Developing Countries Versus Advanced Economies," NBER Working Papers 10673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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