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Monetary Sovereignty, Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls: The Trilemma in the Interwar Period

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Author Info
Maurice Obstfeld (University of California, Berkeley and CEPR and NBER)
Jay Shambaugh (Department of Economics, Dartmouth College)
Alan Taylor (University of California at Davis, and NBER)

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Abstract

The interwar period was marked by the end of the classical gold standard regime and new levels of macroeconomic disorder in the world economy. The interwar disorder often is linked to policies inconsistent with the constraint of the open-economy trilemma--the inability of policymakers simultaneously to pursue a fixed exchange rate, open capital markets, and autonomous monetary policy. The first two objectives were linchpins of the pre-1914 order. As increasingly democratic polities faced pressures to engage in domestic macroeconomic management, however, either currency pegs or freedom of capital movements had to yield. This historical analytic narrative is compelling--with significant ramifications for today's world, if true--but empirically controversial. We apply theory and empirics to the interwar data and find strong support for the logic of the trilemma. Thus, an inability to pursue consistent policies in a rapidly changing political and economic environment appears central to an understanding of the interwar crises, and the same constraints still apply today.

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Paper provided by Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley in its series Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series with number 1050.

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Date of creation: 02 May 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:ciders:1050

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Related research
Keywords: exchange rates; capital controls; currency pegs; monetary policy; economic globalization;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay Shambaugh & Alan Taylor, 2004. "The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility," International Finance 0407003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Krugman, Paul R, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-82, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326. [Downloadable!]
  4. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1991. "The Linkage between Speculative Attack and Target Zone Models of Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 1367-72, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Fixing exchange rates A virtual quest for fundamentals," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-37, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Kenneth A. Froot & Maurice Obstfeld, 1991. "Stochastic Process Switching: Some Simple Solutions," NBER Working Papers 2998, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Jay C. Shambaugh, 2004. "The Effect of Fixed Exchange Rates on Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 300-351, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Larry Neal & Marc Weidenmier, 2002. "Crises in the Global Economy from Tulips to Today: Contagion and Consequences," NBER Working Papers 9147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1991. "The term structure of interest rate differentials in a target zone : Theory and Swedish data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 87-116, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 1998. "The Great Depression as a Watershed: International Capital Mobility over the Long Run," NBER Chapters, in: The Defining Moment: The Great Depression and the American Economy in the Twentieth Century, pages 353-402 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Explaining exchange rate volatility: an empirical analysis of 'the holy trinity' of monetary independence, fixed exchange rates, and capital mobility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 925-945, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Sergio L. Schmukler & Luis Serven, 2002. "Global Transmission of Interest Rates: Monetary Independence and Currency Regime," NBER Working Papers 8828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Michael D. Bordo, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regime Choice in Historical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 9654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Baxter, M. & Stockman, A.C., 1988. "Business Cycles And The Exchange Rate System: Some International Evidence," RCER Working Papers 140, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
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  18. repec:rus:hseeco:181565 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Alan M. Taylor & Janine L. F. Wilson, 2006. "International Trade and Finance under the Two Hegemons: Complementaries in the United Kingdom 1870-1913 and the United States 1920-30," NBER Working Papers 12543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2008. "Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves," NBER Working Papers 14217, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Kirsten Wandschneider, 2005. "The Stability of the Inter-war Gold Exchange Standard. Did Politics Matter?," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0518, Middlebury College, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Julian di Giovanni & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2006. "The Impact of Foreign Interest Rates on the Economy: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime," IMF Working Papers 06/37, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. GRENADE, Kari & MOORE, Winston, 2008. "Co-Movements Between Foreign And Domestic Interest Rates In A Fixed Exchange Rate Regime: The Case Of The Eccu And The Us," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 8(1), pages 119-130. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. di Giovanni, Julian & McCrary, Justin & von Wachter, Till, 2005. "Following Germany's Lead: Using International Monetary Linkages to Identify the Effect of Monetary Policy on the Economy," IZA Discussion Papers 1495, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Masato Shizume, 2007. "A Reassessment of Japan's Monetary Policy during the Great Depression: The Constraints and Remedies," Discussion Paper Series 208, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University. [Downloadable!]
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