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Favorable External Shocks, Sectoral Adjustment and De-industrialization in Non-Oil Producing Economies

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Author Info
Seung-Gwan Baek (none)
Abstract

This paper examines the extent to which a favorable external shock such as the lower price of an intermediate input affects sectoral output and employment, the real exchange rate the wage in an economy where the input has no domestic production at all. The analytical framework is a real, short-run model based on a three-sector, three-factor small open economy. The effect of the shock on the variables concerned depends on the structural characteristics of production and consumption in the economy. In the normal case, the traded sectors initially favored by the shock expand the most among sectors while the other tradables suffer. The real exchange rate may appreciate along with the upsurge of wages. The shock can produce many other possible cases, however: The nontraded sector may grow at the expense of the traded sectors including the favored sector, thus leading to de-industrialization. An extreme case is that the positive effect on output and employment may occur only at the traded sectors that are initially unfavored by the shock. The shock may bring about real depreciation, or a decline in nominal wages, too.

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Paper provided by Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley in its series Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series with number 1038.

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Date of creation: 10 Jun 1996
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:ciders:1038

Note: oai:cdlib1:iber/cider-1038
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Related research
Keywords: imported intermediate inputs; gross complements and substitutes; sectoral output and employment;

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Kamas, Linda, 1986. "Dutch disease economics and the Colombian export boom," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 14(9), pages 1177-1198, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Michael Bruno & Jeffrey Sachs, 1982. "Energy and Resource Allocation: A Dynamic Model of the "Dutch Disease"," NBER Working Papers 0852, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Buffie, Edward F., 1989. "Imported inputs, real wage rigidity and devaluation in the small open economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1345-1361, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Cassing, James H. & Warr, Peter G., 1985. "The distributional impact of a resource boom," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 301-319, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-48, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Jonathan Eaton, 1987. "A Dynamic Specific-Factors Model of International Trade," NBER Working Papers 1479, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Buffie, Edward F., 1984. "The macroeconomics of trade liberalization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 121-137, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Eastwood, R K & Venables, A J, 1982. "The Macroeconomic Implications of a Resource Discovery in an Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(366), pages 285-99, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Bruno, Michael, 1982. " Adjustment and Structural Change under Supply Shocks," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 84(2), pages 199-221.
  12. Bruno, Michael & Sachs, Jeffrey, 1982. "Energy and Resource Allocation: A Dynamic Model of the "Dutch Disease"," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(5), pages 845-59, Special I. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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