This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Sovereign Risk, Credibility and the Gold Standard: 1870-1913 versus 1925-31

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Maurice Obstfeld (University of California, Berkeley and CEPR and NBER)
Alan Taylor (University of California at Davis, and NBER)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

What determines sovereign risk? We study the London bond market from the 1870s to the 1930s. Our findings support conventional wisdom concerning the low credibility of the interwar gold standard. Before 1914 gold standard adherence effectively signalled credibility and shaved up to 30 basis points from country borrowing spreads. In the 1920s, however, simply resuming prewar gold parities was insufficient to secure benefits. Countries that devalued before resumption were treated more favorably, and markets scrutinized other signals. Public debt and British Empire membership were important determinants of spreads after World War One, but not before.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://repositories.cdlib.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1029&context=iber/cider
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley in its series Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series with number 1029.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 11 Jan 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cdl:ciders:1029

Note: oai:cdlib1:iber/cider-1029
Contact details of provider:
Postal: F502 Haas, Berkeley CA 94720-1922
Phone: (510) 642-1922
Fax: (510) 642-5018
Email:
Web page: http://repositories.cdlib.org/iber/cider/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords: Gold standard; sovereign risk; credibility; monetary regimes; exchange rates;

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Peter L. Rousseau & Richard Sylla, 2001. "Financial Systems, Economic Growth, and Globalization," Working Papers 0119, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Thomas J. Sargent, 1981. "Stopping moderate inflations: the methods of Poincaré and Thatcher," Working Papers 0, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  4. Drazen, Allan & Masson, Paul R, 1994. "Credibility of Policies versus Credibility of Policymakers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(3), pages 735-54, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 2002. "Globalization and Capital Markets," NBER Working Papers 8846, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Matthew T. Jones and Maurice Obstfeld., 1997. "Saving, Investment, and Gold: A Reassessment of Historical Current Account Data," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C97-094, University of California at Berkeley.
    Other versions:
  7. Hugh Rockoff & Michael D. Bordo, 1996. "The Gold Standard as a "Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval"," Departmental Working Papers 199528, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Smith, Gregor W. & Smith, R. Todd, 1997. "Greenback-Gold Returns and Expectations of Resumption, 1862?1879," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(03), pages 697-717, September. [Downloadable!]
  9. Flandreau, Marc & Sussman, Nathan, 2004. "Old Sins: Exchange Rate Clauses and European Foreign Lending in the 19th Century," CEPR Discussion Papers 4248, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung, 1996. "Monetary Regimes, Inflation And Monetary Reform: An Essay in Honor of Axel Leijonhufvud," Departmental Working Papers 199407, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Michael D. Bordo & Anna J. Schwartz, 1997. "Monetary Policy Regimes and Economic Performance: The Historical Record," NBER Working Papers 6201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Hawke, G R, 1975. "Income Estimation from Monetary Data: Further Explorations," Review of Income and Wealth, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(3), pages 301-07, September.
  13. Christopher M. Meissner, 2002. "A New World Order: Explaining the Emergence of the Classical Gold Standard," NBER Working Papers 9233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Bordo Michael D. & Kydland Finn E., 1995. "The Gold Standard As a Rule: An Essay in Exploration," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 423-464, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Michael Bordo & Michael Edelstein & Hugh Rockoff, 1999. "Was Adherence to the Gold Standard a "Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval" During the Interwar Period?," NBER Working Papers 7186, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Accominotti, Olivier & Flandreau, Marc & Rezzik, Riad & Zumer, Frédéric, 2008. "Black Man’s Burden: Measured Philanthropy in the British Empire, 1880-1913," CEPR Discussion Papers 6811, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Kris James Mitchener & Masato Shizume & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2008. "Why did Countries Adopt the Gold Standard? Lessons from Japan," Discussion Paper Series 228, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University. [Downloadable!]
  3. Niall Ferguson & Moritz Schularick, 2005. "The Empire Effect: Country Risk in the First Age of Globalization, 1880-1913," Economic History 0509002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Christopher M Meissner & Michael D Bordo, 2006. "Financial Crises, 1880-1913: The Role of Foreign Currency Debt," WEF Working Papers 0002, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Wolf, Nikolaus, 2008. "Scylla and Charybdis. Explaining Europe’s Exit from Gold, January 1928- December 1936," CEPR Discussion Papers 6685, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Christopher M Meissner & Michael D Bordo, 2006. "The Role of Foreign Currency Debt in Financial Crises: 1880-1913 vs. 1972-1997," WEF Working Papers 0001, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Prasanna Gai & Kang-yong Tan, 2004. "Good Housekeeping? Reputation, Fixed Exchange Rates, and the 'Original Sin' Problem," Working Papers 082004, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Filippo Cesarano & Giulio Cifarelli & Gianni Toniolo, 2009. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Reserve Policy on the Periphery: The Italian Lira 1883-1911," Working Papers Series wp2009_11.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche. [Downloadable!]
  9. Michael D Bordo & Christopher M Meissner & Marc D Weidenmier, 2006. "Currency Mismatches, Default Risk, and Exchange Rate Depreciation: Evidence from the End of Bimetallism," WEF Working Papers 0010, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Christoph Trebesch, 2009. "The Cost of Aggressive Sovereign Debt Policies: How Much is thePrivate Sector Affected?," IMF Working Papers 09/29, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? IDEAS also computes impact factors for journals and working paper series.

This page was last updated on 2009-10-30.


This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.