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Understanding Devaluations in Latin America: A 'Bad Fundamentals' Approach

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Author Info
Maria Martinez Peria (University of California, Berkeley)

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Abstract

This paper is an empirical study of the determinants of Latin American devaluations during the period between 1957 and 1988. The estimation of probabilities of devaluation is done using logit analysis. The empirical results show that reserves, the real exchange rate, the share of domestic credit to the public sector and the current account deficit have a significant effect on the likelihood of a devaluation. In summary, this paper confirms the view that devaluations in Latin America are a consequence of the state of fundamentals in these economies.

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Paper provided by Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley in its series Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series with number 1027.

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Date of creation: 01 May 1997
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:ciders:1027

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Keywords: devaluations; fixed exchange rates; economics;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1984. "Gold Monetization and Gold Discipline," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(1), pages 90-107, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Linda S. Goldberg, 1990. "Predicting Exchange Rate Crises: Mexico Revisited," NBER Working Papers 3320, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Klein, Michael W. & Marion, Nancy P., 1997. "Explaining the duration of exchange-rate pegs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 387-404, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1994. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," NBER Working Papers 4898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Maurice Obstfeld, 1997. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-Fulfilling Features," NBER Working Papers 5285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Peria, Maria Soledad Martinez, 1999. "A regime - switching approach to studying speculative attacks : focus on European Monetary System crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2132, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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