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Hedging Housing Risk

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Author Info
Peter Englund (Stockholm School of Ecomonics)
Min Hwang (University of California at Berkeley)
John Quigley (University of California at Berkeley)

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Abstract

An unusually rich source of data on housing prices in Stockholm is used to analyze the investment implications of housing choices. This empirical analysis derives market-wide price and return series for housing investment during a 13-year period, and it also provides estimates of the individual-specific, idiosyncratic, variation in housing returns. Because the idiosyncratic component follows an autocorrelated process, the analysis of portfolio choice is dependent upon the holding period. We analyze the composition of household investment portfolios containing housing, common stocks, stocks in real estate holding companies, bonds, and t-bills. For short holding periods, the efficient portfolio contains essentially no housing. For longer periods, low risk portfolios contain 15 to 50 percent housing. These results suggest that there are large potential gains from policies or institutions that would permit households to hedge their lumpy investments in housing. We estimate the potential value of hedges in reducing risk to households, yet yielding the same investment returns. The value is surprisingly large, especially to poorer homeowners.

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Paper provided by Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy in its series Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series with number 1018.

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Date of creation: 27 Jun 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:bphupl:1018

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  2. Jorion, Philippe, 1985. "International Portfolio Diversification with Estimation Risk," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(3), pages 259-78, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Englund, Peter, 1999. "The Swedish Banking Crisis: Roots and Consequences," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 80-97, Autumn.
  4. Englund, Peter & Quigley, John M. & Redfearn, Christian L., 1998. "Improved Price Indexes for Real Estate: Measuring the Course of Swedish Housing Prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 171-196, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-37, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Richard Barkham & David Geltner, 1995. "Price Discovery in American and British Property Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 23(1), pages 21-44. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Tracy M. Turner, 2003. "Does Investment Risk Affect the Housing Decisions of Families?," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(4), pages 675-691, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Goetzmann, William Nelson, 1993. "The Single Family Home in the Investment Portfolio," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 201-22, May.
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  9. Heaton, John & Lucas, Deborah, 2000. "Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Background Risk," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 1-26, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Brueckner, Jan K, 1997. "Consumption and Investment Motives and the Portfolio Choices of Homeowners," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 159-80, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & Allan N. Weiss, 1991. "Index-Based Futures and Options Markets in Real Estate," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1006, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  12. Harvey S. Rosen & Kenneth T. Rosen & Douglas Holtz-Eakin, 1984. "Housing Tenure, Uncertainty, and Taxation," NBER Working Papers 1168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Sweeney, James L., 1974. "Housing unit maintenance and the mode of tenure," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 111-138, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Englund, P. & Ioannides, Y.M., 1996. "House Price Dynamics: An International Empirical Perspective," Papers 1996-01, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2005. "Equilibrium Correlation of Asset Price and Return," Discussion Papers 00017, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Yongheng Deng & John Quigley, 2008. "Index Revision, House Price Risk, and the Market for House Price Derivatives," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 191-209, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Khalid Sekkat & Ariane Szafarz, 2009. "Valuing Homeownership," Working Papers CEB 09-006.RS, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, Centre Emile Bernheim (CEB). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2009. "Wealth Effetcs on Consumption: Evidence from the euro area," NIPE Working Papers 12/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Jan Rouwendal, 2009. "Housing Wealth and Household Portfolios in an Ageing Society," De Economist, Springer, vol. 157(1), pages 1-48, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Yoshiki Kago & Charles Ward, 2008. "Hedging Effectiveness of Total Returns Swaps: Application to the Japanese Market," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2008-05, Henley Business School, Reading University. [Downloadable!]
  7. Torfinn Harding, Haakon O. Aa. Solheim og Andreas Benedictow, 2004. "House ownership and taxes," Discussion Papers 395, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
  8. Steven Bourassa & Donald Haurin & Jessica Haurin & Martin Hoesli & Jian Sun, 2007. "House Price Changes and Idiosyncratic Risk: The Impact of Property Characteristics," Working Papers 07-03, Ohio State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Juerg Syz & Paolo Vanini & Marco Salvi, 2008. "Property Derivatives and Index-Linked Mortgages," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 23-35, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Patricia Fraser & Martin Hoesli & Lynn McAlevey, 2008. "House Prices and Bubbles in New Zealand," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 71-91, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Tuukka Saarimaa, 2008. "Owner-Occupied Housing and Demand for Risky Financial Assets: Some Finnish Evidence," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 21(1), pages 22-38, Spring. [Downloadable!]
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