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Regime Shifts in Short Term Riskless Interest Rates

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  • Ball, Clifford A.
  • Torous, Walter N.
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    Abstract

    Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff, and Sanders [1992] find no evidence that the October 1979 change in Federal Reserve operating policy resulted in a once-and-for-all deterministic break in the behavior of short term riskless interest rates. In contrast, we provide evidence of such a regime shift even after allowing the volatility of interest rate changes to depend on the level of interest rates. However, rather than modeling this regime-shift as a permanent event with no further shifts possible, it is more realistic to model the change in regimes itself as a random variable. Accordingly, we put forward a stochastic volatility interest rate model which generalizes previous specifications of interest rate dynamics and allowed testing for stochastic regime shifts. This Markov regime shifting model provides a more accurate description of the behavior of U.S. short term riskless interest rates. We also consider a specification that allows interest rate volatility to follow a diffusion proves and we provide a statistically efficient integration-based filtering procedure to estimate its parameters. Five U.S. short term riskless interest rate data, we cannot statistically distinguish between these alternative models. In either case, once the stochastic nature of interest rate volatility is taken in account, we find little or no evidence of a deterministic structural break in corresponding stochastic volatility interest rate dynamics around October 1979.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA in its series University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management with number qt5hs021jf.

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    Date of creation: 25 Aug 1995
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    Handle: RePEc:cdl:anderf:qt5hs021jf

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    Cited by:
    1. Sebastian Edwards & Raul Susmel, 2000. "Interest Rate Volatility and Contagion in Emerging Markets: Evidence from the 1990s," NBER Working Papers 7813, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Lourdes Gómez-Valle & Julia Mart�nez-Rodr�guez, 2010. "Improving the term structure of interest rates: two-factor models," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 275-287.
    3. Verónica Balzarotti, 2006. "Real Interest Rate Risk in the Argentine Banking System. A Measuring Model," BCRA Working Paper Series 200606, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
    4. Sebastian Edwards, 2000. "Interest Rates, Contagion and Capital Controls," NBER Working Papers 7801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Edwards, Sebastian & Susmel, Raul, 2001. "Volatility dependence and contagion in emerging equity markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 505-532, December.
    6. Goto, Shingo, 2000. "The Fed's Effect on Excess Returns and Inflation is Much Bigger Than You Think," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt04f1z5hb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    7. Dell'Aquila, Rosario & Ronchetti, Elvezio & Trojani, Fabio, 2003. "Robust GMM analysis of models for the short rate process," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 373-397, May.
    8. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson, 1999. "A Multifactor, Nonlinear, Continuous-Time Model of Interest Rate Volatility," NBER Working Papers 7213, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Richard Stanton & Robert Whitelaw, 1999. "A Multifactor, Nonlinear, Continuous-Time Model of Interest Rate Volatility," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-042, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    10. Gómez-Valle, Lourdes & Marti­nez-Rodri­guez, Julia, 2008. "Modelling the term structure of interest rates: An efficient nonparametric approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 614-623, April.
    11. Andersen, Torben G. & Lund, Jesper, 1997. "Estimating continuous-time stochastic volatility models of the short-term interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 343-377, April.

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