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International Capital Markets and Foreign Exchange Risk

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Author Info
Michael Brennan (Anderson Graduate School of Management)
Yihong Xia (The Wharton School)
Abstract

The relation between the volatilities of pricing kernels associated with dierent currencies and the volatility of the exchange rate between the currencies is derived under the assumption of integrated capital markets, and the volatilities of the pricing kernels are related to the foreign exchange risk premium. Time series of pricing kernel volatilities are estimated from panel data on bond yields for five major currencies using a parsimonious term structure model that allows for time varying pricing kernel volatilities. The resulting estimates are used to test hypotheses about the relation between the volatilities of the pricing kernels in dierent currencies and the volatility of the exchange rate. As predicted, time variation in foreign exchange risk premia is found to be related to time variation in both the volatility of the pricing kernels and the volatility of exchange rates: the estimated pricing kernel volatilities can account for the forward premium puzzle in an 'average' sense across exchange rates.

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Paper provided by Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA in its series University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management with number 1251.

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Date of creation: 22 Jan 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:anderf:1251

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  2. Geert Bekaert, 1996. "The Time Variation of Risk and Return in Foreign Exchange Markets: A General Equilibrium Perspective," NBER Working Papers 4818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Lewis, Karen K., 1995. "Puzzles in international financial markets," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 37, pages 1913-1971 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. David K. Backus, 2001. "Affine Term Structure Models and the Forward Premium Anomaly," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 279-304, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Michael Brandt & John Cochrane & Pedro Santa-Clara, 2001. "International Risk Sharing is Better Than You Think (or Exchange Rates are Much Too Smooth!," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1015, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Domowitz, Ian & Hakkio, Craig S., 1985. "Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 47-66, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Robert R. Bliss, 1996. "Testing term structure estimation methods," Working Paper 96-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2006. "Can Affine Term Structure Models Help Us Predict Exchange Rates?," Working Papers 06-27, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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  2. M.J. Brennan, 2004. "How Did It Happen?," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1250, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
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