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An Econometric Model of the Yield Curve With Macroeconomic Jump Effects

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Author Info
Monika Piazzesi (Anderson School of Management)

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Abstract

We present a simulation-based method for solving realistic portfolio choice problems that potentially involve non-standard preferences and a large number of assets with arbitrary return distribution. Specifically, the return distribution can be time-varying as a function of many observable or unobservable state variables and can even be path-dependent. Furthermore, the method is flexible enough to accommodate intermediate consumption, parameter and model uncertainty, and portfolio constraints. We first establish the properties of the method for the choice between a stock index and cash when the stock returns are either iid or predictable by the dividend yield. We then explore the optimal asset allocation across ten industry portfolios that exhibit momentum through its empirical pattern of own- and cross-serial correlations of returns.

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Paper provided by Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA in its series University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management with number 1002.

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Date of creation: 10 Apr 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:anderf:1002

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  2. Constantinides, George M, 1992. "A Theory of the Nominal Term Structure of Interest Rates," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 531-52. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy rules based on real-time data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  15. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Giuseppe Bertola & Silverio Foresi & Leora Klapper, 1997. "Interest Rate Targeting and the Dynamics of Short-Term Rates," NBER Working Papers 5944, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:4:p:657-81 is not listed on IDEAS
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  1. Nuno Cassola & Claudio Morana, 2007. "Comovements in Volatility in the Euro Money Market," ICER Working Papers 7-2007, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  2. Viktor Kotlán, 2001. "Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates in a small open economy - a model framework approach," Macroeconomics 0110003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Hao Zhou, 2001. "Jump-diffusion term structure and Ito conditional moment generator," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-28, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  4. James D. Hamilton & Oscar Jorda, 2000. "A Model for the Federal Funds Rate Target," NBER Working Papers 7847, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Michael Gallmeyer & Burton Hollifield & Stanley E. Zin, 2005. "Taylor Rules, McCallum Rules and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 11276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Jun Liu & Francis A. Longstaff & Ravit E. Mandell, 2002. "The Market Price of Credit Risk: An Empirical Analysis of Interest Rate Swap Spreads," NBER Working Papers 8990, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Brito, R. D. & Flôres Jr, R.G., 2001. "Optimal Growth and Monetary Policy: the impacts on the term structure of interest rates," Ibmec Working Papers wpe_10, Ibmec Working Paper, Ibmec São Paulo. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Ravi Jagannathan & Andrew Kaplin & Steve Guoqiang Sun, 2001. "An Evaluation of Multi-Factor CIR Models Using LIBOR, Swap Rates, and Cap and Swaption Prices," NBER Working Papers 8682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Nuno Cassola & Claudio Morana, 2006. "Comovements in volatility in the euro money market," Working Paper Series 703, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Leonardo Bartolini & Alessandro Prati, 2003. "Cross-country differences in monetary policy execution and money market rates' volatility," Staff Reports 175, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Hibiki Ichiue, 2004. "Why Can the Yield Curve Predict Output Growth, Inflation, and Interest Rates? An Analysis with Affine Term Structure Model," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 581, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  12. John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2002. "The Fed and Interest Rates: A High-Frequency Identification," NBER Working Papers 8839, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Michael W. Brandt & Pedro Santa-Clara, 2001. "Simulated Likelihood Estimation of Diffusions with an Application to Exchange Rate Dynamics in Incomplete Markets," NBER Technical Working Papers 0274, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão & Brito, Ricardo Dias Oliveira, 2001. "Stochastic Growth and Monetary Policy: the impacts on the term structure of interest rates," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 416, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  16. Jun Liu & Francis Longstaff & Ravit Mandell, 2000. "The Market Price of Credit Risk: An Empirical Analysis of Interest Rate Swap Spreads," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1076, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
  17. Goeij, P. de & Marquering, W.A., 2002. "Modeling the Conditional Covariance between Stock and Bond Returns," Research Paper ERS-2002-11-F&A Revision_, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
  18. Goeij, P. de & Marquering, W.A., 2002. "Do Macroeconomic Announcements Cause Asymetric Volatility?," Research Paper ERS-2002-103-F&A Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
  19. Carrasco, Marine & Chernov, Mikhaël & Florens, Jean-Pierre & Ghysels, Eric, 2000. "Efficient Estimation of Jump Diffusions and General Dynamic Models with a Continuum of Moment Conditions," IDEI Working Papers 116, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised 2002. [Downloadable!]
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  20. George Monokroussos, 2005. "Dynamic Limited Dependent Variable Modeling and US Monetary Policy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 460, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  21. Stefano Galluccio & Yann Le Cam, 2005. "Implied Calibration of Stochastic Volatility Jump Diffusion Models," Finance 0510028, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  22. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi, 2001. "A No-Arbitrage Vector Autoregression of Term Structure Dynamics with Macroeconomic and Latent Variables," NBER Working Papers 8363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Hao Zhou, 2003. "Itô conditional moment generator and the estimation of short rate processes," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-32, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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