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Poverty program participation and employment in timber-dependent counties

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Author Info
Peter Berck (University of California, Berkeley)
Christopher Costello (University of California, Berkeley)
Sandra Hoffman (University of California, Berkeley)
Louise Fortmann (University of California, Berkeley)

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Abstract

This paper uses cointegrated time-series methods to evaluate the effect of timber employment on participation in a major poverty program-Aid to Families with Dependent Children-Unemployed Parent (AFDC-UP). The study is conducted for major timber-producing counties in California. It is shown that a two-sector structural model can be solved to produce an error-correction model. An error-correction model is estimated with time series on state and county AFDC-UP caseload, state employment, county nontimber employment, and county timber employment. Utilizing tests on the cointegrating space, it is shown that there is no long-run relationship between poverty and timber employment in 10 of the 11 counties studied.

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Paper provided by Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley in its series Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series with number 898.

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Date of creation: 01 Oct 1999
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:agrebk:898

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Keywords: afdc; economic conditions; employment; poverty; timber; time-series analysis;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Timothy Bartik, 1993. "Who Benefits from Local Job Growth: Migrants or the Original Residents?," Regional Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 27(4), pages 297-311, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1992. "Recursive Estimation in Cointegrated VAR-Models," Discussion Papers 92-13, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  3. Sawhill, Isabel V, 1988. "Poverty in the U.S.: Why Is It So Persistent?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 1073-119, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Greenwood, Michael J & Hunt, Gary L, 1984. "Migration and Interregional Employment Redistribution in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 957-69, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. David M. Cutler & Lawrence F. Katz, 1991. "Macroeconomic Performance and the Disadvantaged," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1991-2), pages 1-74. [Downloadable!]
  6. Marston, Stephen T, 1985. "Two Views of the Geographic Distribution of Unemployment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(1), pages 57-79, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Rebecca M. Blank & David Card, 1993. "Poverty, Income Distribution, and Growth: Are They Still Connected," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(1993-2), pages 285-340. [Downloadable!]
  9. Hoffmann, Sandra A. & Robinson, Sherman & Subramanian, Shankar, 1995. "The role of defense cuts in the California recession : computable general equilibrium models and interstate factor mobility," CUDARE Working Paper Series 741, University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy.
  10. Brown, Scott J. & Coulson, N. Edward & Engle, Robert F., 1992. "On the determination of regional base and regional base multipliers," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 619-635, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1992-1), pages 1-76. [Downloadable!]
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