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Risque politique et croissance en Afrique

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Author Info

  • Jean-Paul AZAM

    ()
    (Atelier de Recherche Quantitative Aplliquée au Développement Economique)

  • Jean-Claude BERTHELEMY

    ()
    (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International)

  • Stéphane CALIPEL

    ()
    (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International)

Abstract

On propose un modèle théorique simple dans lequel l'activité de rébellion de l'opposition est une fonction croissante des activités de prédation et de répression du gouvernement, et une fonction décroissante de ses activités de redistribution. Ces prédictions sont testées sur des données nationales africaines, au moyen d'un modèle probit, et ne sont pas rejetées. On montre enfin que le risque politique, entendu comme la probabilité de violence politique, a un effet négatif sur la croissance économique.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CERDI in its series Working Papers with number 199624.

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Length: 11
Date of creation: 1996
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in , 1996, pages 819-829
Handle: RePEc:cdi:wpaper:6

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Cited by:
  1. Azam, Jean-Paul & Mesnard, Alice, 2001. "Civil War and the Social Contract," IDEI Working Papers, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse 124, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  2. Mehlum, Halvor & Moene, Karl & Torvik, Ragnar, 2005. "Crime induced poverty traps," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 325-340, August.
  3. Azam, Jean-Paul, 2003. "The Paradox of Power Reconsidered: A Theory of Political Regimes in Africa," IDEI Working Papers, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse 233, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised 2005.
  4. Mallaye, Douzounet, 2009. "Reformes Monétaires Et Croissance Économique En Zone Cemac
    [Monetary Reforms And Economic Growth In Cemac Zone]
    ," MPRA Paper 19621, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Hadhek Zouhaier & Kefi Mohamed Karim, 2012. "Democracy, Investment and Economic Growth," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, Econjournals, vol. 2(3), pages 233-240.
  6. Frédéric PUECH, 2002. "Dépenses publiques d’éducation et instabilité politique : une application à la zone franc par un modèle d’Equilibre Général Calculable," Working Papers, CERDI 200219, CERDI.

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