Increased Exposure of China to Asymmetric External Shocks: Is Fiscal Federalism an Efficient Answer?
AbstractThe aim of this paper is to examine whether there is a co-insurance mechanism against provincial aggregate income fluctuations between the Chinese provinces. Our theoretical argument relies on the existence of an efficient allocation of risk between the Chinese provinces. According to this analysis, an institutional arrangement between the provinces allows the perfect smoothing of provincial private consumption. In this case, changes in provincial private consumption depend rather on changes in aggregate Chinese income than on asymmetric changes in provincial income. We test this hypothesis on the 1989-2000 period for 30 Chinese provinces using the GMM estimator. Econometric evidence highlights the weakness of co-insurance mechanisms between the Chinese provinces. First, we reject the hypothesis of perfect insurance. Second, there does not seem to exist a significant, though imperfect, insurance mechanism. Indeed, the provinces’ private consumption reactions are the same either after a shock affecting all the provinces or after an asymmetric shock.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CERDI in its series Working Papers with number 200217.
Date of creation: 2002
Date of revision:
China.; Fiscal Federalism; Regional Economics Risk Coping; Co-insurance;
Other versions of this item:
- Jean-François BRUN & Jean-Louis COMBES & Pascale COMBES MOTEL & Mary-Françoise RENARD, 2004. "Increased Exposure of China to Asymmetric External Shocks: Is Fiscal Federalism an Efficient Answer?," Working Papers 200425, CERDI.
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- Mary-Françoise Renard, 2004. "La montée en puissance de la Chine dans le commerce mondial : une réussite spectaculaire pour une économie fragile," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 77(4), pages 43-61.
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