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Volatilité des prix des produits primaires, vulnérabilité et développement

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  • Patrick GUILLAUMONT

    ()
    (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International)

  • Jean-Louis COMBES

    ()
    (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International)

Abstract

This paper examines the meaning and consequences of the developing countries economic vulnerability to the volatility of commodity prices. It first considers how to define and measure this vulnerability, which has three components, shocks, exposure and resilience, and focuses on the two first ones in order to identify the structural vulnerability, distinct from the vulnerability linked to the policy. Second, the main channels through which the vulnerability to commodity prices influences economic growth are presented on the basis of several previous cross-sectional growth regression, supplemented by a test given in an annex. Finally, policy implications are drawn related to development aid, its allocation and its design as well.

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File URL: http://publi.cerdi.org/ed/2000/2000.14.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CERDI in its series Working Papers with number 200014.

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Length: 22
Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cdi:wpaper:141

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References

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  1. Catherine A. Pattillo & Andrew Berg, 1998. "Are Currency Crises Predictable? a Test," IMF Working Papers 98/154, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Dani Rodrik, 1996. "Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," NBER Working Papers 5537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Catherine ARAUJO BONJEAN & Jean-Louis COMBES & Pascale COMBES MOTEL, 1999. "The Economic Consequences of Export Instability in Developing Countries: A Survey," Working Papers 199926, CERDI.
  4. Jeffrey Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Progress of Global Integration," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1733, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  5. Henrik Hansen & Finn Tarp, 2000. "Aid effectiveness disputed," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 375-398.
  6. Patrick GUILLAUMONT & Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY & Paul COLLIER & Jan Willem GUNNING, 1997. "Rénover le Stabex," Working Papers 199723, CERDI.
  7. Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1994. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Patrick GUILLAUMONT & Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY & Jean-François BRUN, 1997. "How Instability Lowers African Growth ?," Working Papers 199712, CERDI.
  9. Ghura, Dhaneshwar & Grennes, Thomas J., 1993. "The real exchange rate and macroeconomic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 155-174, October.
  10. Paul Collier & P. Guillaumont & S. Guillaumont Jeanneney & Jan Willem Gunning, 1999. "Reforming Stabex," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(5), pages 669-682, 07.
  11. Collier, Paul & Guillaumont, Patrick & Guillaumont, Sylviane & Gunning, Jan Willem, 1997. "Redesigning conditionality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1399-1407, September.
  12. Jean-Louis COMBES & Patrick GUILLAUMONT & Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY & Pascale COMBES MOTEL, 1999. "Ouverture sur l'extérieur et instabilité des taux de croissance," Working Papers 199927, CERDI.
  13. Patrick GUILLAUMONT & Lisa CHAUVET, 1999. "Aid and Performance: A Reassessment," Working Papers 199910, CERDI.
  14. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 1999. "Volatility and Investment: Interpreting Evidence from Developing Countries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 66(262), pages 157-79, May.
  15. David Dollar & Craig Burnside, 2000. "Aid, Policies, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 847-868, September.
  16. Robert Lensink & Howard White, 2000. "Assessing Aid: A Manifesto for Aid in the 21st Century?," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 5-18.
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Cited by:
  1. Delphine Boutin, 2011. "D'une crise à l'autre : mesurer l'impact des prix alimentaires sur la pauvreté," Working Papers hal-00637608, HAL.

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