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Volatilité des prix des produits primaires, vulnérabilité et développement

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Author Info
Patrick GUILLAUMONT () (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International)
Jean-Louis COMBES () (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International)

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Abstract

This paper examines the meaning and consequences of the developing countries economic vulnerability to the volatility of commodity prices. It first considers how to define and measure this vulnerability, which has three components, shocks, exposure and resilience, and focuses on the two first ones in order to identify the structural vulnerability, distinct from the vulnerability linked to the policy. Second, the main channels through which the vulnerability to commodity prices influences economic growth are presented on the basis of several previous cross-sectional growth regression, supplemented by a test given in an annex. Finally, policy implications are drawn related to development aid, its allocation and its design as well.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CERDI in its series Working Papers with number 200014.

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Length: 22
Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cdi:wpaper:141

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  1. Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1994. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 1999. "Volatility and Investment: Interpreting Evidence from Developing Countries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 66(262), pages 157-79, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Robert Lensink & Howard White, 2000. "Assessing Aid: A Manifesto for Aid in the 21st Century?," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 5-18. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. P. Guillaumont & L. Chauvet, 2001. "Aid and Performance: A Reassessment," The Journal of Development Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 66-92, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1995-1), pages 1-118. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ghura, Dhaneshwar & Grennes, Thomas J., 1993. "The real exchange rate and macroeconomic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 155-174, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Catherine A. Pattillo & Andrew Berg, 1998. "Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test," IMF Working Papers 98/154, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Henrik Hansen & Finn Tarp, 2000. "Aid effectiveness disputed," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 375-398.
  9. Catherine ARAUJO BONJEAN & Jean-Louis COMBES & Pascale COMBES MOTEL, 1999. "The Economic Consequences of Export Instability in Developing Countries: A Survey," Working Papers 199926, CERDI. [Downloadable!]
  10. Paul Collier & P. Guillaumont & S. Guillaumont Jeanneney & Jan Willem Gunning, 1999. "Reforming Stabex," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(5), pages 669-682, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Jean-Louis COMBES & Patrick GUILLAUMONT & Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY & Pascale COMBES MOTEL, 1999. "Ouverture sur l'extérieur et instabilité des taux de croissance," Working Papers 199927, CERDI. [Downloadable!]
  12. Collier, Paul & Guillaumont, Patrick & Guillaumont, Sylviane & Gunning, Jan Willem, 1997. "Redesigning conditionality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1399-1407, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 997-1032, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Burnside, Craig & Dollar, David, 1997. "Aid, policies, and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1777, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Guillaumont, Patrick & Jeanneney, Sylviane Guillaumont & Brun, Jean-Francois, 1999. "How Instability Lowers African Growth," Journal of African Economies, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 87-107, March.
    Other versions:
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