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Ukraine et Biélorussie : des crises jumelles ?

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  • Michaël GOUJON

    ()
    (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International)

  • Samuel GUERINEAU

    ()
    (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International)

Abstract

L’Ukraine et la Biélorussie ont été touchées par la crise financière internationale depuis l’automne 2008. Ces deux économies en transition sont relativement proches en termes de structure productive, mais l’Ukraine est plus ouverte financièrement. Une première analyse suggère pourtant des similitudes très fortes entre les crises ukrainienne et biélorusse, à la fois dans l’évolution des deux pays avant celles-ci et dans leur déroulement (chute des exportations à l’automne 2008, appel au FMI au mois d’octobre et dépréciation de la monnaie fin 2008 - début 2009). Cette étude questionne ces crises « jumelles » en exposant les similitudes et les différences des deux économies en termes d’ouverture économique et de structure financière avant la crise. Les caractères principaux des deux crises sont ensuite détaillés ce qui permet d’analyser leurs mécanismes. Il ressort que l’Ukraine a subi un choc financier plus important, amplifié par un effet de contagion par les marchés, et mis en œuvre une politique macroéconomique moins contracyclique, qui ont produit une récession beaucoup plus marquée. Ukraine and Belarus have been hit by the global financial crisis since fall 2008. These two transition economies are structurally similar but financial openness is greater in Ukraine. At a first glance however, the two crisis show strong similarities in the evolution of the two countries before and during the crisis (a drop in exports in fall 2008, IMF intervention in October and the sharp depreciation of the domestic currencies at the end of 2008 – beginning of 2009). This paper questions these « twin » crises by identifying similarities and differences between the two economies in terms of economical openness and financial structure before the crisis. The main characteristics of the two crises are then detailed allowing the analysis of the two crisis mechanisms. It appears that Ukraine has been hit by a higher financial shock amplified by a market contagion effect, and have implemented a less contra cyclical macroeconomic policy, resulting in a deeper recession.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CERDI in its series Working Papers with number 201007.

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Length: 25
Date of creation: Feb 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cdi:wpaper:1133

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Keywords: crise financiere; économies en transition; balance des paiements - financial crisis; transition economies; balance of payments;

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  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Sara Calvo, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?," Peterson Institute Press: Chapters, in: Guillermo A. Calvo & Morris Goldstein & Eduard Hochreiter (ed.), Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets After the Mexican Crisis, pages 151-171 Peterson Institute for International Economics.
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