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Can a pure real business cycle model explain the real exchange rate: the case of Ukraine

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  • Onishchenko, Kateryna

    ()
    (Cardiff Business School)

Abstract

Real exchange rate (RER) is an important instrument for restoring sustainable economic growth in the small open economy with large export share. RER of Ukrainian currency can be explained within the real business cycle (RBC) framework without any forms of nominal rigidities. Fitting Ukrainian quarterly data for the period of 1996:Q1-2009:Q3 into the small open economy real business cycle model and testing it by method of indirect inference shows that RER can be reproduced by RBC framework. The generated pseudo-samples for RER by method of bootstrapping allow to obtain the distribution of the best fit ARIMA(2,1,4) parameters and to show with the Wald statistics that those parameters lie within 95% confidence intervals of those estimated for bootstrapped pseudo Q parameters.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section in its series Cardiff Economics Working Papers with number E2011/17.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2011/17

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Keywords: sustainable economic growth; business cycle; real exchange rates; small open economy; indirect inference; ARIMA;

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  1. Maurice J. Roche & Michael J. Moore, 2009. "Solving Exchange Rate Puzzles with neither Sticky Prices nor Trade Costs," Working Papers 001, Ryerson University, Department of Economics.
  2. Jon Steinsson, 2005. "The Dynamic Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate in Sticky Price Models," Economics wp28_jonst, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
  3. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2003. "International risk-sharing and the transmission of productivity shocks," Working Papers 03-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  4. Enrique Martinez-Garcia & Jens Søndergaard, 2008. "The real exchange rate in sticky price models: does investment matter?," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 17, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  5. De Grauwe, Paul & Grimaldi, Marianna, 2006. "Exchange rate puzzles: A tale of switching attractors," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 1-33, January.
  6. van Aarle, Bas & de Jong, Eelke & Sosoian, Robert, 2006. "Exchange rate management in Ukraine: Is there a case for more flexibility?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 282-305, October.
  7. Balázs Égert, 2004. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Southeastern Europe, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey: Healthy or (Dutch) Diseased?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 138-181.
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