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Impact of Climate Change on the Indian Economy-Evidence from Foodgrain Yields

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Author Info

  • SHREEKANT GUPTA

    (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, Delhi, India & LKY School of Public Policy (NUS))

  • PARTHA SEN

    (South Asian University)

  • SUCHITA SRINIVASAN

    (American Express)

Abstract

This paper estimates the impact of climate change on foodgrain yields in India, namely riceand millets. We estimate a crop-specific agricultural production function with exogenous climate variables, namely, precipitation and temperature and control for key inputs such as irrigation, fertilizer and labour. Our analysis is at the district level using a panel dataset for physical yield (output per hectare – gross cropped area) for the period 1966-99. Thus, we eschew crop simulation approaches that rely on experimental data. We do not also estimate reduced form relationships between economic variables such as profits or the monetary value of yield and weather measures. Consistent with other studies at the district and state level we find significant impacts of climate change (temperature and precipitation) on Indian agriculture. The implication of our results for inter-state disparities and corrective measures is elaborated.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics in its series Working papers with number 218.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cde:cdewps:218

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Keywords: Climate Change; Agricultural Impacts; Developing Countries;

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  1. Hemanshu Kumar & Rohini Somanathan, 2009. "Mapping Indian Districts Across Census Years, 1971-2001," Working papers 176, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
  2. Richard Hornbeck, 2009. "The Enduring Impact of the American Dust Bowl: Short and Long-run Adjustments to Environmental Catastrophe," NBER Working Papers 15605, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Temesgen Tadesse Deressa & Rashid M. Hassan, 2009. "Economic Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in Ethiopia: Evidence from Cross-section Measures," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 18(4), pages 529-554, August.
  4. Salvador Barrios & Luisito Bertinelli & Eric Strobl, 2006. "Climatic Change and Rural-Urban Migration: The Case of Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 06-01, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
  5. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-71, September.
  6. Lahiri, Ashik Kumar & Roy, Prannoy, 1985. "Rainfall and supply-response : A study of rice in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2-3), pages 315-334, August.
  7. K.S. Kavi Kumar, 2009. "Climate Sensitivity of Indian Agriculture," Working Papers 2009-043, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
  8. Kanwar, Sunil, 2006. "Relative profitability, supply shifters and dynamic output response, in a developing economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 67-88, January.
  9. Santosh Poudel & Koji Kotani, 2013. "Climatic impacts on crop yield and its variability in Nepal: do they vary across seasons and altitudes?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(2), pages 327-355, January.
  10. K.S. Kavi Kumar, 2009. "Climate Sensitivity Of Indian Agriculture," Development Economics Working Papers 22939, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  11. Hornbeck, Richard A., 2012. "The Enduring Impact of the American Dust Bowl: Short- and Long-Run Adjustments to Environmental Catastrophe," Scholarly Articles 11303325, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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