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The Classification of Economic Activity into Expansions and Recessions

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  • Travis Berge
  • Oscar Jorda

    (Department of Economics, University of California Davis)

Abstract

The Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) of the National Bureau of Economic Research provides a historical chronology of business cycle turning points. This paper investigates three central aspects about this chronology: (1) How skillful is the BCDC in classifying economic activity into expansions and recessions? (2) Which indices of business conditions best capture the current but unobservable state of the business cycle? And (3) Which indicators predict future turning points best and at what horizons? We answer each of these questions in detail with methods novel to economics designed to assess classification ability. In the process we clarify several important features of business cycle phenomena.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of California, Davis, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 918.

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Length: 43
Date of creation: 04 Nov 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cda:wpaper:09-18

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Related research

Keywords: business cycle turning points; receiver operating characteristic curve;

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Cited by:
  1. �scar Jord� & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2011. "Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 59(2), pages 340-378, June.
  2. James D. Hamilton, 2010. "Calling Recessions in Real Time," NBER Working Papers 16162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Hsieh Fushing & Shu-Chun Chen & Travis J. Berge & Oscar Jorda, 2010. "A Chronology of International Business Cycles Through Non-parametric Decoding," Working Papers 1020, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  4. Shaun P Vahey & Elizabeth C Wakerly, 2013. "Moving towards probability forecasting," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 70, pages 3-8 Bank for International Settlements.

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