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The Impact of Cost Changes on Industry Dynamics

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  • James E. Prieger

    (Department of Economics, University of California Davis)

Abstract

This paper inquires into the response of industry dynamics to increases in costs. We show that increases in marginal and fixed costs may have interesting, non-obvious effects on entry and exit. Before costs change, the model exhibits behavior that matches many industries such as manufacturing and retail: fewer but larger firms over time, and significant amounts of entry and exit. When costs rise, price rises and the market quantity supplied falls, but the amount of entry and exit may rise or fall. The most intuitive outcome from a cost increase is the competitor neutral case, in which entry decreases and exit increases. Two other possible cases are the entrant favoring case, in which entry and exit both increase, and the incumbent favoring case, in which entry and exit both decrease. The model places restrictions on which outcomes are possible given which costs rise (marginal or fixed). The entrant favoring case can arise only from an increase in marginal cost, which favors small entering firms relative to larger incumbents. The incumbent favoring case can come about only from an increase in fixed cost, which favors incumbents with their larger market share relative to small entrants. These restrictions allow one to infer the nature of the cost increases even when costs are not directly observed. The model can be used to examine the impacts of cost-increasing regulation or exogenous process innovation on industry dynamics.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of California, Davis, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 51.

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Length: 38
Date of creation: 07 Feb 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cda:wpaper:05-1

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Related research

Keywords: marginal cost; fixed cost; dynamic industry models; entry; exit; failure; market size;

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References

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  1. Mark J. Melitz, 2002. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," NBER Working Papers 8881, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Katherine Baicker & Amitabh Chandra, 2005. "The Effect of Malpractice Liability on the Delivery of Health Care," NBER Chapters, in: Frontiers in Health Policy Research, Volume 8 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Pankaj Ghemawat & Barry Nalebuff, 1985. "Exit," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 16(2), pages 184-194, Summer.
  4. James E. Prieger, 2004. "The Impacts of the Americans with Disabilities Act on the Entry and Exit of Retail Firms," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 386, Econometric Society.
  5. Manjón Antolín, Miguel C., 2004. "Firm Size and Short-Term Dynamics in Aggregate Entry and Exit," Working Papers 2072/1778, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
  6. Dixit, Avinash, 1979. "The Role of Investment in Entry-Deterrence," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 140, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  7. Peretto, Pietro F, 1996. "Sunk Costs, Market Structure, and Growth," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(4), pages 895-923, November.
  8. Michael J. Mazzeo, 2002. "Product Choice and Oligopoly Market Structure," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 33(2), pages 221-242, Summer.
  9. Amir, Rabah & Lambson, Val E., 2003. "Entry, exit, and imperfect competition in the long run," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 191-203, May.
  10. Marcus Asplund & Volker Nocke, 2003. "Firm Turnover in Imperfectly Competitive Markets," PIER Working Paper Archive 03-010, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  11. Richard E. Caves, 1998. "Industrial Organization and New Findings on the Turnover and Mobility of Firms," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 1947-1982, December.
  12. Berry, Steven T, 1992. "Estimation of a Model of Entry in the Airline Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 889-917, July.
  13. Steven Klepper, 2002. "Firm Survival and the Evolution of Oligopoly," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 33(1), pages 37-61, Spring.
  14. Timothy F. Bresnahan & Peter C. Reiss, 1987. "Do Entry Conditions Vary across Markets?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(3), pages 833-882.
  15. Ariel Pakes & Michael Ostrovsky & Steve Berry, 2004. "Simple Estimators for the Parameters of Discrete Dynamic Games (with Entry/Exit Samples)," NBER Working Papers 10506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Bresnahan, Timothy F & Reiss, Peter C, 1990. "Entry in Monopoly Markets," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(4), pages 531-53, October.
  17. C. Lanier Benkard, 2004. "A Dynamic Analysis of the Market for Wide-Bodied Commercial Aircraft," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(3), pages 581-611.
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