Modelling stochastic mortality for dependent lives
AbstractStochastic mortality, i.e. modelling death arrival via a jump process with stochastic intensity, is gaining increasing reputation as a way to rep- resent mortality risk. This paper represents a .rst attempt to model the mortality risk of couples of individuals, according to the stochastic inten- sity approach. We extend to couples the Cox processes set up, namely the idea that mortality is driven by a jump process whose intensity is itself a stochastic process, proper of a particular generation within each gen- der. Dependence between the survival times of the members of a couple is captured by an Archimedean copula. We also provide a methodology for fitting the joint survival function by working separately on the (analytical) copula and the (analytical) mar- gins. First, we calibrate and select the best fit copula according to the methodology of Wang and Wells (2000b) for censored data. Then, we provide a sample-based calibration for the intensity, using a time- homogeneous, non mean-reverting, affine process: this gives the marginal survival functions. By coupling the best fit copula with the calibrated mar- gins we obtain a joint survival function which incorporates the stochastic nature of mortality improvements. Several measures of time dependent association can be computed out of it. We apply the methodology to a well known insurance dataset, using a sample generation. The best fit copula turns out to be a Nelsen one, which implies not only positive dependency, but dependency increasing with age.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Collegio Carlo Alberto in its series Carlo Alberto Notebooks with number 43.
Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
stochastic mortality; bivariate mortality; copula functions; longevity risk.;
Other versions of this item:
- Luciano, Elisa & Spreeuw, Jaap & Vigna, Elena, 2008. "Modelling stochastic mortality for dependent lives," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 234-244, October.
- Elisa Luciano & Jaap Spreeuw & Elena Vigna, 2007. "Modelling Stochastic Mortality for Dependent Lives," CeRP Working Papers 58, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
- G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-11-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2007-11-24 (Econometrics)
- NEP-HEA-2007-11-24 (Health Economics)
- NEP-RMG-2007-11-24 (Risk Management)
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