CPI Inflation Targeting and the UIP Puzzle: An Appraisal of Instrument and Target Rules
AbstractEmploying an optimizing framework, this paper shows that a target rule dominates a simple instrument rule when the focus of monetary policy is on CPI inflation. The target rule approach produces a systematic relationship between the current CPI inflation rate and the lagged policy instrument that renders the former immune to the stochastic risk premium. No matter how policy parameters are set, the optimal simple instrument rule cannot replicate the superior stabilization results achieved by the target rule approach. The optimal simple instrument rule also fails to account for the UIP puzzle. In contrast, the target rule approach can motivate the widely reported phenomenon whereby high interest rate currencies tend to appreciate. In fact the degree of openness and the central bank’s relative aversion to CPI inflation variability determine the sensitivity of observed changes in the nominal exchange rate to the lagged interest rate differential.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 11/18.
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 01 May 2011
Date of revision:
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CPI Inflation Targeting; UIP Puzzle; Instrument Rule; Target Rule; Optimal Monetary Policy;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
- E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
- F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-05-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-05-14 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2011-05-14 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2011-05-14 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bennett T. McCallum, 2002.
"Recent developments in monetary policy analysis: the roles of theory and evidence,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 67-96.
- Bennett McCallum, 1999. "Recent developments in monetary policy analysis: the roles of theory and evidence," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 171-198.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 1999. "Recent Developments in Monetary Policy Analysis: The Roles of Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 7088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bennett T. McCallum, . "Recent Developments in monetary policy analysis: The roles of theory and evidence," GSIA Working Papers 1999-12, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- David K. Backus & Federico Gavazzoni & Christopher Telmer & Stanley E. Zin, 2010. "Monetary Policy and the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 16218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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