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Prospects for the UK Balance of Payments

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  • Ken Coutts
  • Bob Rowthorn

Abstract

This paper presents disaggregated projections for the UK balance of payments up to 2020. Under conservative assumptions about underlying trends it is projected that the current account deficit will increase from 2% of GDP in 2009 to almost 5% of GDP by the end of the period. Empirical evidence indicates that a deficit of this magnitude is not sustainable and, if unchecked, will lead to a painful adjustment involving lost output and higher unemployment. The paper calls for industrial and other policies to improve UK trade performance, above all in manufacturing, but also in knowledge-intensive services (communications, consultancy, R&D, media etc). It also points out the need to safeguard London’s role as a global financial centre.

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File URL: http://www.cbr.cam.ac.uk/pdf/WP394.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ESRC Centre for Business Research in its series ESRC Centre for Business Research - Working Papers with number wp394.

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Date of creation: Dec 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cbr:cbrwps:wp394

Note: PRO-1
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Web page: http://www.cbr.cam.ac.uk/

Related research

Keywords: Balance of Payments; forecasts; visible trade; services; investment income; industrial policy.;

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  1. Coutts, K. & Glyn, A. & Rowthorn, B., 2007. "Structural Change under New Labour," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0721, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  2. Martin Weale, 2009. "Commentary: Growth Prospects and Financial Services," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 207(1), pages 4-9, January.
  3. F. Gerard Adams, 2009. "Will Economic Recovery Drive up World Oil Prices?," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 10(2), pages 1-26, April.
  4. Bergsten, C. Fred, 2002. "Can the United States afford the tax cuts of 2001?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 373-380, July.
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