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An Evaluation of Large-Scale Mortgage Refinancing Programs: Working Paper 2011-04

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  • Deborah Lucas
  • Damien Moore
  • Mitchell Remy

Abstract

We analyze a stylized large-scale mortgage refinancing program that would relax current income and loan-to-value restrictions for borrowers who wish to refinance and whose mortgages are currently insured by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, or the Federal Housing Administration. The analysis relies on an estimate of the volume of incremental refinancing that would occur and an estimate of how future default and prepayment behavior would be affected by such refinancing. Relative to the status quo, the specific program analyzed here is estimated to cause an additional 2.9 million

Suggested Citation

  • Deborah Lucas & Damien Moore & Mitchell Remy, 2011. "An Evaluation of Large-Scale Mortgage Refinancing Programs: Working Paper 2011-04," Working Papers 42752, Congressional Budget Office.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbo:wpaper:42752
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    File URL: https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/112th-congress-2011-2012/workingpaper/09-07-2011-Large-Scale_Refinancing_Program_1.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Anthony A. Defusco & John Mondragon, 2020. "No Job, No Money, No Refi: Frictions to Refinancing in a Recession," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(5), pages 2327-2376, October.
    2. Gabriel Ehrlich & Jeffrey Perry, 2015. "Do Large-Scale Refinancing Programs Reduce Mortgage Defaults? Evidence From a Regression Discontinuity Design: Working Paper 2015-06," Working Papers 50871, Congressional Budget Office.
    3. Joshua Abel & Andreas Fuster, 2021. "How Do Mortgage Refinances Affect Debt, Default, and Spending? Evidence from HARP," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 254-291, April.
    4. Dwight M. Jaffee, 2011. "Housing Finance Reform: Private Markets Versus Government Guarantees," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(04), pages 823-836.
    5. Carlos R. Madeira & Víctor Pérez F., 2013. "Gestión Hipotecaria de las Familias Chilenas," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 16(2), pages 122-133, August.
    6. Deborah Lucas, 2016. "Credit Policy as Fiscal Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(1 (Spring), pages 1-57.
    7. Tracy, Joseph & Wright, Joshua, 2016. "Payment changes and default risk: The impact of refinancing on expected credit losses," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 60-70.
    8. Joanne W. Hsu & David A. Matsa & Brian T. Melzer, 2014. "Positive Externalities of Social Insurance: Unemployment Insurance and Consumer Credit," NBER Working Papers 20353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Adam M. Guren & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Timothy J. Mcquade, 2021. "Mortgage Design in an Equilibrium Model of the Housing Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 113-168, February.
    10. Rodney Ramcharan & Amir Kermani & Marco Di Maggio, 2015. "Monetary Policy Pass-Through: Household Consumption and Voluntary Deleveraging," 2015 Meeting Papers 256, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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