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Incorporating Longevity Effects into Long-Term Medicare Projections: Technical Paper 2004-02

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Listed:
  • John Sabelhaus
  • Michael Simpson
  • Julie Topoleski

Abstract

The cost of the Medicare program will increase dramatically as the baby boom generation reaches retirement. Results from the Congressional Budget Office Long-Term Model (CBOLT) indicate that Medicare costs will equal more than 9 percent of GDP by 2078. This paper considers the impact of replacing the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services approach of using an age- and sex-based model with one that is also based on age and sex but adds time until death to the forecasting model. Other researchers have found that using only age and sex can significantly overstate future

Suggested Citation

  • John Sabelhaus & Michael Simpson & Julie Topoleski, 2004. "Incorporating Longevity Effects into Long-Term Medicare Projections: Technical Paper 2004-02," Working Papers 15190, Congressional Budget Office.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbo:wpaper:15190
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    File URL: https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/108th-congress-2003-2004/workingpaper/2004-2_0.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. David M. Cutler & Louise Sheiner, 1998. "Demographics and Medical Care Spending: Standard and Non-Standard Effects," NBER Working Papers 6866, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. David M. Cutler & Ellen Meara, 2001. "The Concentration of Medical Spending: An Update," NBER Chapters, in: Themes in the Economics of Aging, pages 217-240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Alan M. Garber & Thomas E. MaCurdy & Mark C. McClellan, 1998. "Medical Care at the End of Life: Diseases, Treatment Patterns, and Costs," NBER Working Papers 6748, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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