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Budget deficits and inflation feedback

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  • Sergey Pekarski

    ()
    (Centre for Advanced Studies and Laboratory for Macroeconomic Analysis, State University – Higher School of Economics, Moscow.)

Abstract

This paper contributes to the literature on budget deficits and inflation in high inflation economies. The main finding is that recurrent outbursts of extreme inflation in these economies can be explained by a certain hysteresis effect associated with public finance. This interpretation meets the evidence that dramatic shifts between regimes of moderately high and extremely high (hyper-) inflation often occur without visible deterioration in public finance or abrupt shifts in fiscal and monetary policies. The existence of the hysteresis effect is explicitly explained by the work of two mechanisms: the arithmetic associated with the wrong side of the inflation tax Laffer curve and the Patinkin effect (the reverse of the much more-cited Olivera-Tanzi effect). It is also shown that the division of the operational budget deficit into the part that is subject to negative inflation feedback and the inflation-proof part has implications for both the discussion of inflationary consequences of budget deficits and the proper design of stabilization policy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Laboratory for Macroeconomic Analysis in its series Working Papers with number WP13_2007_12.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cas:wpaper:wp13_2007_12

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Related research

Keywords: budget deficit; high inflation; the Patinkin effect.;

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References

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  1. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Vegh, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," NBER Working Papers 8930, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Jose De Gregorio & Peter Wickham & Patricio Arrau & Carmen Reinhart, 1991. "The Demand for Money in Developing Countries: Assessing the Role of Financial Innovation," IMF Working Papers 91/45, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Marcet, Albert & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 1998. "Recurrent Hyperinflations and Learning," CEPR Discussion Papers 1875, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Carlos E. Zarazaga, 1995. "Hyperinflations and moral hazard in the appropriation of seigniorage: an empirical implementation with a calibration approach," Working Papers 9517, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  5. Oscar J. Arce, 2006. "Speculative Hyperinflations: When Can We Rule Them Out?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 376, Society for Computational Economics.
  6. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1973. "Rational Expectations and the Dynamics of Hyperinflation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(2), pages 328-50, June.
  7. Don Patinkin, 1993. "Israel's Stabilization Program of 1985, or Some Simple Truths of Monetary Theory," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 103-128, Spring.
  8. Catao, Luis A.V. & Terrones, Marco E., 2005. "Fiscal deficits and inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 529-554, April.
  9. Eliana Cardoso, 1998. "Virtual Deficits and the Patinkin Effect," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(4), pages 619-646, December.
  10. Bruno, Michael & Fischer, Stanley, 1990. "Seigniorage, Operating Rules, and the High Inflation Trap," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(2), pages 353-74, May.
  11. Rudiger Dornbusch & Ferico Sturzenegger & Holger Wolf, 1990. "Extreme Inflation: Dynamics and Stabilization," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 1-84.
  12. Thomas J. Sargent, 1982. "The Ends of Four Big Inflations," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation: Causes and Effects, pages 41-98 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Ugo Panizza, 2008. "Domestic And External Public Debt In Developing Countries," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 188, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  14. Kiguel, Miguel A, 1989. "Budget Deficits, Stability, and the Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(2), pages 148-57, May.
  15. Bruno, Michael, 1993. "Crisis, Stabilization, and Economic Reform: Therapy by Consensus," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198286639.
  16. Eliane A. Cardoso, 1998. "Virtual Deficits and the Patinkin Effect," IMF Working Papers 98/41, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Heymann, Daniel & Sanguinetti, Pablo, 1994. "Fiscal inconsistencies and high inflation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 85-104, February.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2011. "The nexus between public expenditure and inflation in the Mediterranean countries," MPRA Paper 28493, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Jalil, Abdul & Tariq, Rabbia & Bibi, Nazia, 2014. "Fiscal deficit and inflation: New evidences from Pakistan using a bounds testing approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 120-126.

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