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Monetary Policy in an Economy Sick with Dutch Disease

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Author Info

  • Kirill Sosunov

    ()
    (State University – Higher School of Economics)

  • Oleg Zamulin

    ()
    (New Economic School)

Abstract

The paper studies monetary policy in an economy, in which the manufacturing sector is ousted completely by the presence of a large natural resource industry. Thus, the economy produces only non-tradable goods, which can complement or substitute imported goods, and the primary shock to the economy comes from the fluctuations in the world price of the exported commodity. A model of such an economy is calibrated using parameters relevant for Russia, which is an example of an economy sick with Dutch Disease, and several conventional policy rules are considered. It is shown that in absence of a well-functioning fiscal stabilization fund, it may be optimal for monetary authorities to respond to the real exchange rate, as the Bank of Russia allegedly does, using purchases of foreign reserves as the policy instrument. The logic of these actions is to replace the absent fiscal stabilization policy. In case monetary policy is conducted using an interest rate instrument, there should be no reaction to the real exchange rate and only slight one – to inflation.

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File URL: http://www.cas.hse.ru/Repec/pdf/WP13_2007_07.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Laboratory for Macroeconomic Analysis in its series Working Papers with number WP13_2007_07.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cas:wpaper:wp13_2007_07

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Related research

Keywords: Dutch disease; Monetary Policy; Russia.;

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References

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  1. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September.
  2. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  3. Martin Uribe, 2002. "Real Exchange Rate Targeting and Macroeconomic Instability," NBER Working Papers 9294, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Chari, V V & Kehoe, Patrick J & McGrattan, Ellen R, 2002. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(3), pages 533-63, July.
  6. Esanov, Akram & Merkl, Christian & Vinhas de Souza, Lúcio, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules for Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  7. John C. Williams, 1999. "Simple rules for monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Svensson, Lars E.O. & Rudebusch , Glenn, 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," Seminar Papers 637, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  9. Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Romain Ranciere & Kenneth Rogoff, 2006. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development," Working Papers 06.02, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  10. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Jordi Gal� & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
  12. FFF1Alexander A. NNN1Weinreb, 2003. "Change and instability," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 1(12), pages 373-396, September.
  13. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Vegh, Carlos, 1994. "Targeting the real exchange rate: Theory and evidence," MPRA Paper 13412, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Uhlig, H., 1995. "A toolkit for analyzing nonlinear dynamic stochastic models easily," Discussion Paper 1995-97, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  15. Eric Parrado, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Rules in an Open Economy," IMF Working Papers 04/21, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1981. "Macroeconomic Policy, Exchange-Rate Dynamics, and Optimal Asset Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1142-61, December.
  17. Vdovichenko Anna & Voronina Victoria, 2004. "Monetary policy rules and their application in Russia," EERC Working Paper Series 04-09e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
  18. Krugman, Paul, 1987. "The narrow moving band, the Dutch disease, and the competitive consequences of Mrs. Thatcher : Notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 41-55, October.
  19. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 185-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Thinking about monetary policy in Russia – a useful DSGE model?
    by Lars Christensen in The Market Monetarist on 2013-04-25 19:50:13
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
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Cited by:
  1. Charemza, Wojciech & Makarova, Svetlana & Prytula, Yaroslav & Raskina, Julia & Vymyatnina, Yulia, 2009. "A small forward-looking inter-country model (Belarus, Russia and Ukraine)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1172-1183, November.
  2. Mohamed Tahar Benkhodja, 2011. "Monetary Policy and the Dutch Disease in a Small Open Oil Exporting Economy," Working Papers halshs-00654511, HAL.
  3. Ruslan Aliyev, 2012. "Monetary Policy in Resource-Rich Developing Economies," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp466, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
  4. Oxana Malakhovskaya & Alexey Minabutdinov, 2014. "Are commodity price shocks important? A Bayesian estimation of a DSGE model for Russia," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(1/2), pages 148-180.
  5. Somayeh Mardaneh, 2012. "Inflation Dynamics in a Dutch Disease Economy," Discussion Papers in Economics 12/25, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  6. Karev, M., 2011. "Revealed Preferences of the Bank of Russia. Simulation Approach," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 9, pages 72-97.
  7. Hasanov Fakhri, 2011. "Analyzing price level in a booming economy: the case of Azerbaijan," EERC Working Paper Series 11/02e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
  8. Irina Khvostova & Alexander Larin & Anna Novak, 2014. "Euler equation with habits and measurement errors: estimates on Russian micro data," HSE Working papers WP BRP 52/EC/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.

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