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Macroeconomic Stabilisation: Fixed Exchange Rates vs Inflation Targeting vs Price Level Targeting

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Abstract

We argue that the traditional question ‘fixed vs. flexible exchange rates?’ is not well-defined, because ‘flexible exchange rates’ does not explicitly specify any particular monetary policy. In traditional analyses, ‘flexible exchange rates’ was interpreted as implying a fixed money supply. But fixing the money supply (or fixing its growth rate at k%) is rarely advocated nowadays. To reflect today’s policy debate, the traditional question should be replaced by the question ‘fixed exchange rates vs. inflation targeting vs. price level targeting?’. We then build a simple macroeconomic model of a small open economy. The model incorporates an ‘outside lag’ in the effect of monetary policy on aggregate demand, so that inflation targeting and price level targeting are always imperfect. We use this model to compare the stabilisation properties of three different monetary rules: a fixed exchange rate, a fixed inflation target, and a fixed price level target. We show that price level targeting is best for stabilising output, the real exchange rate and the real interest rate, relative to their natural rates.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Carleton University, Department of Economics in its series Carleton Economic Papers with number 99-15.

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Length: 15 pages
Date of creation: Sep 1999
Date of revision: 22 Mar 2000
Publication status: Published: Carleton Economic Paper
Handle: RePEc:car:carecp:99-15

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Keywords: exchange rates; inflation targets;

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References

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  1. Michael Devereux & Charles Engel, 2000. "The Optimal Choice of Exchange-Rate Regime: Price-Setting Rules and Internationalized Production," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0022, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  2. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
  3. Patrick Osakwe & Lawrence Schembri, 1998. "Currency crises and fixed exchange rates in the 1990s: A review," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1998(Autumn), pages 23-38.
  4. Srour, Gabriel, 1999. "Inflation Targeting under Uncertainty," Technical Reports 85, Bank of Canada.
  5. Boyer, Russell S, 1978. "Optimal Foreign Exchange Market Intervention," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 1045-55, December.
  6. Don E. Roper & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1980. "Optimal Exchange Market Intervention in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 13(2), pages 296-309, May.
  7. Laidler, David, 1999. "The Exchange Rate Regime and Canada's Monetary Order," Working Papers 99-7, Bank of Canada.
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Cited by:
  1. Przemek Kowalski & Wojciech Paczynski & Lukasz Rawdanowicz, 2003. "Exchange rate regimes and the real sector: a sectoral analysis of CEE Countries," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 533-555.
  2. Angelos Kanas & Georgios Tsiotas, 2005. "Real interest rates linkages between the USA and the UK in the postwar period," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(3), pages 251-262.

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