Does the Risk or Realization of a Federal Election Precipitate Canadian Output Growth? – revised version: Does the Expectation or Realization of a Federal Election Precipitate Canadian Output Growth?
AbstractThis paper asks whether Canadian data is consistent with political opportunism, partisanship and/or political competition effects on real output growth since Confederation. Using data from the 1870 to 2005 time period, we find support for an electoral cycle only if actual election dates are replaced with the predicted election hazard (generated by from a Cox-proportional hazard model) in the test. On the other hand, we find strong evidence for the existence of partisan cycles in the data and mixed evidence with respect to whether changes in the degree of political competition have affected real output growth. Evidence in favour of such an effect arises only in more recent times, from 1924 onwards.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Carleton University, Department of Economics in its series Carleton Economic Papers with number 09-11.
Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: 10 Nov 2009
Date of revision: Feb 2011
Publication status: Published: Revised version: Does the Expectation or Realization of a Federal Election Precipitate Canadian Output Growth? Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol. 44, No. 1 (February 2011), pp. 107–132
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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-11-21 (All new papers)
- NEP-CDM-2009-11-21 (Collective Decision-Making)
- NEP-POL-2009-11-21 (Positive Political Economics)
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- Niklas Potrafke, 2012.
"Political cycles and economic performance in OECD countries: empirical evidence from 1951–2006,"
Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 155-179, January.
- Potrafke, Niklas, 2009. "Political cycles and economic performance in OECD countries: empirical evidence from 1951-2006," MPRA Paper 23751, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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