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El índice VIX para la predicción de la volatilidad: un estudio internacional

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Author Info
Javier Giner Rubio () (Universidad de La Laguna; Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Departamento de Economía Financiera y Contabilidad, Campus de Guajara s/n, 38071 La Laguna, Santa Cruz de Tenerife.Tfno.:922317102; Fax: 922317132)
Sandra Morini Marrero () (Universidad de La Laguna; Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Departamento de Economía Financiera y Contabilidad, Campus de Guajara s/n, 38071 La Laguna, Santa Cruz de Tenerife.Tfno.:922317102; Fax: 922317132)
Abstract

Los índices de volatilidad propuestos por algunos mercados de derivados se han constituido como unos indicadores fundamentales no sólo en la negociación de opciones, sino de la percepción de la marcha del mercado en general. En este trabajo se analizan las diferentes propuestas realizadas para el cálculo de los índices VIX, VDAX y VX1 para los mercados americano, alemán y francés respectivamente. Asimismo, el estudio anterior se extiende al mercado español de opciones para lo que es necesario la construcción de un índice de volatilidad sobre el Ibex-35. Para poner de relieve el importante contenido informativo que caracteriza a estas series, también comprobamos cómo estos índices mejoran sustancialmente los indicadores de predicción de volatilidad realizada, comparando sus resultados con otros métodos habituales como modelos de volatilidad histórica y condicional GARCH(1,1).

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Paper provided by Facultad de Ciencias Económicas de la ULPGC in its series Documentos de trabajo conjunto ULL-ULPGC with number 2004-10.

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Length: 21
Date of creation: Oct 2004
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Handle: RePEc:can:series:2004-10

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Keywords: índices de volatilidad; opciones sobre índices bursátiles; predicción.;

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  1. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Blair, Bevan J. & Poon, Ser-Huang & Taylor, Stephen J., 2001. "Forecasting S&P 100 volatility: the incremental information content of implied volatilities and high-frequency index returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 5-26, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Canina, Linda & Figlewski, Stephen, 1993. "The Informational Content of Implied Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 659-81. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
  6. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Ebens, Heiko, 2001. "The distribution of realized stock return volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 43-76, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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