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Pairwise Tests of Purchasing Power Parity Using Aggregate and Disaggregate Price Measures

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  • Pesaran, M.H.
  • Smith, R.P
  • Yamagata. T.
  • Hvozdyk, L.

Abstract

In this paper we adopt a new approach to testing for purchasing power parity, PPP, that is robust to base country effects, cross-section dependence, and aggregation. We test for PPP applying a pairwise approach to the disaggregated data set recently analysed by Imbs, Mumtaz, Ravan and Rey (2005, QJE). We consider a variety of tests applied to all 66 possible pairs of real exchange rate among the 12 countries and estimate the proportion of the pairs that are stationary, for the aggregates and each of the 19 commodity groups. To deal with small sample problems, we use a factor augmented sieve bootstrap approach and present bootstrap pairwise estimates of the proportions that are stationary. The bootstrapped rejection frequencies at 26%-49% based on unit root tests suggest some evidence in favour of the PPP in the case of the disaggregate data as compared to 6%-14% based on aggregate price series.

Suggested Citation

  • Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R.P & Yamagata. T. & Hvozdyk, L., 2006. "Pairwise Tests of Purchasing Power Parity Using Aggregate and Disaggregate Price Measures," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0634, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:0634
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    1. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Hélène Rey, 2005. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation And the Real Exchange Rate," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 1-43.
    2. Hashem Pesaran, M., 2007. "A pair-wise approach to testing for output and growth convergence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 312-355, May.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
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    5. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 691-751, September.
    6. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall.
    7. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
    8. Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2014. "Exchange Rate Puzzles: A Tale of Switching Attractors," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 3, pages 71-117, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    10. Novy, Dennis, 2006. "Is the Iceberg Melting Less Quickly? International Trade Costs after World War II," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 764, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    11. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2012. "Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling: A Long-Run Structural Approach," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199650460.
    12. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S. & Bergman, Michael, 2004. "Dissecting the PPP puzzle: the unconventional roles of nominal exchange rate and price adjustments," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 135-150, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron Smith & Takashi Yamagata & Lyudmyla Hvozdyk, 2009. "Pairwise Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 495-521.
    2. Stephan Smeekes & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 2014. "On the Applicability of the Sieve Bootstrap in Time Series Panels," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(1), pages 139-151, February.
    3. Ana-Maria Fuertes & Shelagh A. Heffernan, 2009. "Interest rate transmission in the UK: a comparative analysis across financial firms and products," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 45-63.
    4. Syed A. Basher & Josep Lluis Carrión-i-Silvestre, 2008. "Price level convergence, purchasing power parity and multiple structural breaks: An application to US cities," Working Papers XREAP2008-08, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Jul 2008.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Purchasing Power Parity; Panel Data; Pairwise Approach; Cross Section Dependence.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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