Models for Converging Economies
AbstractThe aim of this article is the development of models for converging economies. After discussing models of balanced growth, univariate models of the gap between per capital income in two economies are examined. The preferred models combine unobserved components with an error correction mechanism and allow a decomposition into trend, cycle and convergence components. A new type of second-order error correction mechanism is shown to be particularly useful in this respect. The levels of per capita income in two economies may be modelled jointly by bivariate convergence models. These models generalise balanced growth models and can be based on autoregressive or unobserved components formulations. Both approaches provide coherent forecasts but the unobserved components models also yield a description of trends, cycles and convergence components. The methods are applied to data on the US and Japan. The generalisation to multivariate series is then set out.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge in its series Cambridge Working Papers in Economics with number 0216.
Date of creation: May 2002
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/index.htm
cycles; balanced growth; error correction mechanism; stochastic trend; unobserved components;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nyblom, Jukka & Harvey, Andrew, 1999.
"Tests of Common Stochastic Trends,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9902, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Stock, James H., 1991.
"Confidence intervals for the largest autoregressive root in U.S. macroeconomic time series,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 435-459, December.
- James H. Stock, 1991. "Confidence Intervals for the Largest Autoresgressive Root in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series," NBER Technical Working Papers 0105, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bart Hobijn & Philip Hans Franses, 2000. "Asymptotically perfect and relative convergence of productivity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 59-81.
- O'Connell, Paul G. J., 1998. "The overvaluation of purchasing power parity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 1-19, February.
- Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2002.
"The European Business Cycle,"
Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces
E2002/19, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
- Rob Luginbuhl & Siem Jan Koopman, 2003. "Convergence in European GDP Series," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-031/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Haldrup, Niels, . "Empirical analysis of price data in the delineation of the relevant geographical market in competition analysis," Economics Working Papers 2003-9, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Massimiliano Affinito & Fabio Farabullini, 2009. "Does the Law of One Price Hold in Euro-Area Retail Banking? An Empirical Analysis of Interest Rate Differentials across the Monetary Union," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(1), pages 5-37, March.
- Magrini, Stefano, 2004. "Regional (di)convergence," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 62, pages 2741-2796 Elsevier.
- Massimiliano Affinito, 2011. "Convergence clubs, the euro-area rank and the relationship between banking and real convergence," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 809, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Andrew Harvey, 2002.
"Trends, Cycles and Convergence,"
Working Papers Central Bank of Chile
155, Central Bank of Chile.
- Andrew C. Harvey, 2002. "Trends, Cycles, and Convergence," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.), Economic Growth: Sources, Trends, and Cycles, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 8, pages 221-250 Central Bank of Chile.
- Busetti, Fabio & Forni, Lorenzo & Harvey, Andrew & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2006.
"Inflation convergence and divergence within the European Monetary Union,"
Working Paper Series
0574, European Central Bank.
- Fabio Busetti & Lorenzo Forni & Andrew Harvey & Fabrizio Venditti, 2007. "Inflation Convergence and Divergence within the European Monetary Union," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(2), pages 95-121, June.
- Rob Luginbuhl & Siem Jan Koopman, 2004. "Convergence in European GDP series: a multivariate common converging trend-cycle decomposition," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 611-636.
- Christian Proaño Acosta, 2007. "Inflation Differentials and Business Cycle Fluctuations in the European Monetary Union," IMK Working Paper 05-2007, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
- Massimiliano Affinito & Fabio Farabullini, 2006. "An empirical analysis of national differences in the retail bank interest rates of the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 589, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Arbia, G., 2004. "Alternative approaches to regional convergence exploiting both spatial and temporal information," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 22, pages 1-18, Diciembre.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Howard Cobb).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.