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Exploring the Correlation between Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Growth in the CEE Countries

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Author Info
Ildiko Magyari (Faculty of Finance and Banking, Bucharest University of Economics)
Abstract

The main goal of this paper is to investigate the existence of any kind of relationship between real exchange rate misalignment and economic growth in four Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC): the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania. Taking as a basic idea the classical textbook relation between exchange rate movements and economic growth, respectively the fact that exchange rate undervaluation could stimulate growth, the paper presents a series of results using time series and panel analysis. The findings in the case of the country-by-country analysis are conflicting with those of the panel data analysis. In both case, the estimation results emphasize those suggested by the literature, respectively an increase in the real exchange rate misalignment can easily slow economic growth.

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File URL: http://www.dofin.ase.ro/Working%20papers/Magyari%20Ildiko/ildiko.magyari.dissertation.pdf
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File Function: First version, 2008
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Bucharest University of Economics, Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking - CARFIB in its series Advances in Economic and Financial Research - DOFIN Working Paper Series with number 16.

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Date of creation: Sep 2008
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Handle: RePEc:cab:wpaefr:16

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Keywords: Real Exchange Rate Misalignment; Economic Growth;

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Ronald MacDonald, 1997. "What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Long and Short of It," IMF Working Papers 97/21, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Rubaszek, Michal, 2005. "Fundamental equilibrium exchange rate for the Polish zloty," MPRA Paper 126, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Francisco Maeso-Fernandez & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2004. "Towards the estimation of equilibrium exchange rates for CEE acceding countries: methodological issues and a panel cointegration perspective," Working Paper Series 353, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jun Nagayasu & Ronald MacDonald, 1999. "The Long-Run Relationship Between Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Rate Differentials - A Panel Study," IMF Working Papers 99/37, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Simon Johnson & Jonathan David Ostry & Arvind Subramanian, 2007. "The Prospects for Sustained Growth in Africa: Benchmarking the Constraints," IMF Working Papers 07/52, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Ofair Razin & Susan M. Collins, 1997. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Growth," International Finance 9707001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Kateřina Šmídková & Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland, 2003. "Estimates Of Fundamental Real Exchange Rates For The Five Eu Pre-Accession Countries," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2003(4). [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Ofair Razin & Susan M. Collins, 1997. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Growth," NBER Working Papers 6174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Olga Arratibel & Frigyes Ferdinand Heinz & Reiner Martin & Marcin Przybyla & Lucasz Rawdanowicz & Roberta Serafini & Tina Zumer, 2007. "Determinants of growth in the central and eastern European EU member states - a production function approach," Occasional Paper Series 61, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. Peter B. Clark & Ronald MacDonald, 2000. "Filtering the BEER - A Permanent and Transitory Decomposition," IMF Working Papers 00/144, International Monetary Fund.
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