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Evaluating the effectiveness of the rural minimum living standard guarantee (Dibao) programme in China

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Listed:
  • Nanak Kakwani
  • Shi Li
  • Xiaobing Wang
  • Mengbing Zhu

Abstract

China’s rural minimum living standard guarantee programme (Dibao) is the largest social safety-net programme in the world. Given the scale and the popularity of rural Dibao, rigorous evaluation is needed to demonstrate the extent to which the programme meets its intended objective of reducing poverty. This paper develops new methods and uses data from the 2013 Chinese Household Income Project (CHIP2013) to examine the targeting performance of the rural Dibao programme. The paper has found that the rural Dibao programme suffers from very low targeting accuracy, high exclusion error, and inclusion error, and yields a significant negative social rate of return. It discusses possible causes and argues that the fundamental mechanism has to be redesigned to increase the effectiveness of the programme. The paper makes some recommendations to reform Dibao that will significantly improve targeting and reduce the cost of running the programme, thereby helping China to achieve its goal of eradicating extreme poverty by 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Nanak Kakwani & Shi Li & Xiaobing Wang & Mengbing Zhu, 2018. "Evaluating the effectiveness of the rural minimum living standard guarantee (Dibao) programme in China," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series 222018, GDI, The University of Manchester.
  • Handle: RePEc:bwp:bwppap:222018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gordon Anderson & Oliver Linton & Maria Grazia Pittau & Yoon-Jae Whang & Roberto Zelli, 2021. "On unit free assessment of the extent of multilateral distributional variation," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 24(3), pages 502-518.
    2. Huawei Han & Qin Gao, 2020. "Does Welfare Participation Improve Life Satisfaction? Evidence from Panel Data in Rural China," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 21(5), pages 1795-1822, June.
    3. Qin Gao & Fuhua Zhai & Yi Wang, 2022. "Welfare Participation Reduced Severe Child Multidimensional Poverty in Rural China: Better Targeting Can Lead to Greater Poverty Reduction," Child Indicators Research, Springer;The International Society of Child Indicators (ISCI), vol. 15(3), pages 913-932, June.
    4. Zixuan He & Xiangming Fang & Nathan Rose & Xiaodong Zheng & Scott Rozelle, 2021. "Rural minimum living standard guarantee (rural Dibao) program boosts children's education outcomes in rural China," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 13(1), pages 54-77, January.
    5. Jiandong Chen & Ping Wang & Jixian Zhou & Malin Song & Xinyue Zhang, 2022. "Influencing factors and efficiency of funds in humanitarian supply chains: the case of Chinese rural minimum living security funds," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 319(1), pages 413-438, December.
    6. Luo, Jay, 2019. "Poverty alleviation research in rural China: Three decades and counting," SocArXiv gmuav, Center for Open Science.
    7. Taiyang Zhong & Jonathan Crush & Zhenzhong Si & Steffanie Scott, 2022. "Emergency food supplies and food security in Wuhan and Nanjing, China, during the COVID‐19 pandemic: Evidence from a field survey," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 40(3), May.
    8. Jiafeng Gu, 2021. "Family Conditions and the Accessibility of Online Education: The Digital Divide and Mediating Factors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-14, August.
    9. Cheng, Xiaoyu & Wang, Jianying & Chen, Kevin Z., 2022. "Does villager social capital hinder poverty targeting? Evidence from poverty-stricken county of Western China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    10. Qiu Cheng & Kinglun Ngok, 2023. "Does the Dibao Program Improve Citizens’ Life Satisfaction in China? Perceptions of Pathways of Poverty Attribution and Income Inequality," Applied Research in Quality of Life, Springer;International Society for Quality-of-Life Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 975-995, April.
    11. Hisatoshi Hoken & Hiroshi Sato, 2022. "Effects of Public Transfers on Income Inequality and Poverty in Rural China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 30(5), pages 29-48, September.
    12. Nanak Kakwani & Xiaobing Wang & Ning Xue & Peng Zhan, 2022. "Growth and Common Prosperity in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 30(1), pages 28-57, January.
    13. Nanak Kakwani & Xiaobing Wang & Jing Xu & Ximing Yue, 2021. "Assessing the Social Welfare Effects of Government Transfer Programs: Some International Comparisons☆," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 67(4), pages 1005-1028, December.
    14. Yangyang Shen & Shi Li & Xiaobing Wang, 2021. "Impacts of Two Tax Reforms on Inequality and Welfare in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 29(3), pages 104-134, May.
    15. Anson Au, 2023. "Reassessing the econometric measurement of inequality and poverty: toward a cost-of-living approach," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    16. Nanak Kakwani & Xiaobing Wang & Jing Xu & Ximing Yue, 2020. "Assessing the Social Welfare Effects of Government Transfer Programs: Some International Comparisons," LIS Working papers 786, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    17. Mao Zheng & Xiaoguang Li & Zhilong Qin & Muhammad Tayyab Sohail, 2023. "Examining the Impact of Fiscal Resources on Anti-Poverty Expenditure: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-17, March.
    18. ZHANG, Yangyang & ZHENG, Xinye & XIE, Lunyu, 2021. "How do poverty alleviation coordinators help the impoverished in rural China? -- Evidence from the Chinese poor population tracking dataset," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    19. Han, Huawei & Gao, Qin, 2019. "Community-based welfare targeting and political elite capture: Evidence from rural China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 145-159.
    20. Zhao, Xi & Wang, Julia Shu-Huah, 2021. "The effects of multiple welfare program participatifon on educational expenditures and time use: Evidence from the social safety net in China," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).

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    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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