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Determining Military Expenditures: Arms Races and Spill-Over Effects in Cross-Section and Panel Data

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Author Info
J Paul Dunne () (British University in Egypt, Cairo and University of the West of England, Bristol)
Sam Perlo-Freeman () (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI))
Ron P Smith () (Birkbeck College, London)

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Abstract

This paper considers the determinants of military spending, building on an emerging literature that estimates military expenditure demand functions in cross-section and panel data, incorporating ‘arms-race’ type effects. It updates Dunne and Perlo-Freeman (2003b) using the SIPRI military expenditure database for the period 1988-2003, finding broadly similar results. It also shows differences in results across panel methods, particularly the within and between estimates and illustrates the importance of recognising and modelling dynamic processes within panel data. Heterogeneity is also found to be an important issue and when countries are broken up into groups on the basis of per capita income there is no obvious systematic pattern in the results. This is seen to imply that the demand for military spending, even between two mutually hostile powers, may depend on the whole nature of the relationship between them (and other countries and events in the region), and not simply Richardsonian action-reaction patterns.

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File URL: http://carecon.org.uk/BUEDP/0801.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: First version, 2008
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by British University in Egypt, Faulty of Business Administration, Economics and Political Science in its series Discussion Papers with number 0801.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bue:wpaper:0801

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Postal: Cairo - Suez Desert Road - El Sherouk City
Web page: http://www.bue.edu.eg/
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Related research
Keywords: Military Spending; Demand; Arms races; Spillovers; Panel data;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Paul Dunne & Sam Perlo-Freeman, 2003. "The Demand for Military Spending in Developing Countries," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 023-048, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2007. "Unintended Consequences: Does Aid Promote Arms Races?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(1), pages 1-27, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Solomon Polachek & Carlos Seiglie & Jun Xiang, 2005. "Globalization and International Conflict: Can FDI Increase Peace?," Working Papers Rutgers University, Newark 2005-004, Department of Economics, Rutgers University, Newark. [Downloadable!]
  4. Collier, Paul & Hoeffler, Anke, 2002. "Military expenditure - threats, aid, and arms races," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2927, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Dunne, J. Paul & Smith, Ron P., 2007. "The Econometrics of Military Arms Races," Handbook of Defense Economics, Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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