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Testing the Unbiased Forward Exchange Rate Hypothesis Using a Markov Switching Model and Instrumental Variables

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  • fabio spagnolod

    ()

  • Zacharias Psaradakis
  • Martin Sola

Abstract

This paper develops a model for the forward and spot exchange rate which allows for the presence of a Markov switching risk premium in the forward market and considers the issue of testing for the unbiased forward exchange rate (UFER) hypothesis. Using US/UK data, it is shown that the UFER hypothesis cannot be rejected provided that instrumental variables are used to account for within-regime correlation between explanatory variables and disturbances in the Markov switching model on which the test is based.

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File URL: http://www.brunel.ac.uk/329/efwps/03-15.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University in its series Public Policy Discussion Papers with number 03-15.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bru:bruppp:03-15

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Postal: Brunel University, Uxbridge, Middlesex UB8 3PH, UK

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References

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  1. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
  2. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S61-82, Suppl. De.
  3. Hall, Stephen G & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1997. "Cointegration and Changes in Regime: The Japanese Consumption Function," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 151-68, March-Apr.
  4. Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1998. "Finite-sample properties of the maximum likelihood estimator in autoregressive models with Markov switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 369-386, June.
  5. Mankiw, N Gregory & Miron, Jeffrey A, 1986. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(2), pages 211-28, May.
  6. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
  7. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Erratum: The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 195-98, March-Apr.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Balvers, Ronald J. & Klein, Alina F., 2014. "Currency risk premia and uncovered interest parity in the International CAPM," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 214-230.
  2. repec:wyi:journl:002202 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/6970, Paris Dauphine University.
  4. Jinho Bae & Chang-Jin Kim & Dong Heon Kim, 2011. "The Evolution of the Monetary Policy Regimes in the U.S," Discussion Paper Series 1102, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
  5. Zhiguang Wang & Prasad Bidarkota, 2012. "Risk premia in forward foreign exchange rates: a comparison of signal extraction and regression methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 21-51, February.
  6. Brian Lucey & Grace Loring, 2012. "Forward Exchange Rate Biasedness across Developed and Developing Country Currencies - Do Observed Patterns Persist Out of Sample?Abstract:," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp404, IIIS.
  7. repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00658540 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Zheng, Tingguo & Zuo, Haomiao, 2013. "Reexamining the time-varying volatility spillover effects: A Markov switching causality approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 643-662.
  9. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00658540 is not listed on IDEAS

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