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Movimentos Especulativos de Capitais e Comportamento da Taxa de Câmbio no Brasil

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Author Info

  • Fernando de Aquino Fonseca Neto

    ()
    (Banco Central do Brasil)

  • Joanílio Rodolpho Teixeira

    (Departamento de Economia (Department of Economics) Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contabilidade e Ciência da Informação e Documentação (FACE) (Faculty of Economics, Administration, Accounting and Information Science) Universidade de Brasília)

Abstract

This paper analyse the influences of speculative capital movements on exchange rate levels and its volatility in Brazil. Approaches based only in fundamentals are unable to explain some empirical regularity. The speculative behaviour needs to be considered. In particular, empirical works indicates that its fundamental value is a long run trend frequently shifted, suggesting that such rate is, at most, a sequence of temporary equilibria. Our extended model dealing with international arbitrage point out some difficulties of the Central Bank to manage the exchange rate in an environment of financial globalisation. To constrain capital flows may reduce volatility and to restore official possibility to control exchange rate.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Departamento de Economia da Universidade de Brasilia in its series Working papers - Textos para Discussao do Departamento de Economia da Universidade de Brasilia with number 321.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:brs:wpaper:321

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Keywords: Speculative capital; Exchange rate; Macroeconomic policy;

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