Movimentos Especulativos de Capitais e Comportamento da Taxa de Câmbio no Brasil
AbstractThis paper analyse the influences of speculative capital movements on exchange rate levels and its volatility in Brazil. Approaches based only in fundamentals are unable to explain some empirical regularity. The speculative behaviour needs to be considered. In particular, empirical works indicates that its fundamental value is a long run trend frequently shifted, suggesting that such rate is, at most, a sequence of temporary equilibria. Our extended model dealing with international arbitrage point out some difficulties of the Central Bank to manage the exchange rate in an environment of financial globalisation. To constrain capital flows may reduce volatility and to restore official possibility to control exchange rate.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Departamento de Economia da Universidade de Brasilia in its series Working papers - Textos para Discussao do Departamento de Economia da Universidade de Brasilia with number 321.
Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2004
Date of revision:
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Postal: Universidade de Brasília UnB - Campus Universitário Darcy Ribeiro Asa Norte CEP 70910-900, Brasília, Brasil
Fax: (61) 340-2311
Web page: http://e-groups.unb.br/face/eco/
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Speculative capital; Exchange rate; Macroeconomic policy;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
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