Exchange Rate Misalignments and Crises
Abstract
The problem is to evaluate the likelihood that a country will face a currency or balance of payments crisis over a given horizon. When is it rational for market participants to expect a depreciation of the currency? On the basis of considerable empirical studies we know that in both banking and currency crises, there is a multitude of weak and deteriorating economic fundamentals. Our theme is that there is an economic logic to medium and longer-term m ovements in exchange rates, within the context of a consistent dynamic stock-flow model. The equilibrium real exchange rate is a trajectory, not a point. We provide objective measures of the real fundamentals that determine the moving equilibrium real ex c hange rate, and explain the dynamic economic mechanism whereby the actual exchange rate converges to this moving equilibrium exchange rate, called the NATREX. The fundamentals are primarily social consumption/GDP, which is generally driven by fiscal polic y, and the productivity of the economy. Trends in social consumption/GDP, and in fiscal policy, reflected political regime changes in France, Germany and Italy.(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
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Bibliographic Info
Paper provided by Brown University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 98-7.Length:
Date of creation: 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bro:econwp:98-7
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912
Related research
Keywords:Other versions of this item:
- Jerome L. Stein & Giovanna Paladino, 1999. "Exchange Rate Misalignments and Crises," CESifo Working Paper Series 205, CESifo Group Munich.
References
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Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Reza Siregar & Ramkishen Rajan, 2006.
"Models of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates Revisited: A Selective Review of the Literature,"
Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers
2006-04, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
- Ramkishen S. Rajan & Reza Y. Siregar, 2007. "Models of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates Revisited: A Selective Review of the Literature," Working Papers id:1198, eSocialSciences.
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