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Consistent Preordering with an Estimated Criterion Function, with an Application to the Evaluation and Comparison of Volatility Models

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Peter Hansen
Asger Lunde

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Paper provided by Brown University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2003-01.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:bro:econwp:2003-01

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Postal: Department of Economics, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Asger Lunde & Peter Reinhard Hansen, 2001. "A Forecast Comparison of Volatility Models: Does Anything Beat a GARCH(1,1)?," Working Papers 2001-04, Brown University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Zhuanxin Ding & Clive W.J. Granger, 1994. "Modeling Volatility Persistence of Speculative Returns: A New Approach," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 94-05, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
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  3. Ball, Clifford A & Torous, Walter N, 1984. "The Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Security Price Volatility: Theory, Evidence, and Application to Option Pricing," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(1), pages 97-112, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Neil Shephard, 2005. "Stochastic Volatility," Economics Papers 2005-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  5. Beckers, Stan, 1983. "Variances of Security Price Returns Based on High, Low, and Closing Prices," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(1), pages 97-112, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Barucci, Emilio & Reno, Roberto, 2002. "On measuring volatility and the GARCH forecasting performance," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 183-200, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Kunitomo, Naoto, 1992. "Improving the Parkinson Method of Estimating Security Price Volatilities," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(2), pages 295-302, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Nour Meddahi, 2002. "A theoretical comparison between integrated and realized volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 479-508. [Downloadable!]
  9. Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W. J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
  10. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
  13. Maria Elvira Mancino & Paul Malliavin, 2002. "Fourier series method for measurement of multivariate volatilities," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 49-61. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Siem Jan Koopman & Borus Jungbacker & Eugenie Hol, 2004. "Forecasting Daily Variability of the S&P 100 Stock Index using Historical, Realised and Implied Volatility Measurements," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-016/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Asger Lunde & Peter R. Hansen, 2005. "A forecast comparison of volatility models: does anything beat a GARCH(1,1)?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 873-889. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Peter Reinhard Hansen & Asger Lunde & James M. Nason, 2003. "Choosing the best volatility models: the model confidence set approach," Working Paper 2003-28, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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