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The Information Content of Implied Probabilities to Detect Structural Change

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  • Alain Guay

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Universite du Quebec a Montreal)

  • Jean-Francois Lamarche

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Brock University)

Abstract

This paper proposes Pearson-type statistics based on implied probabilities to detect structural change. The class of generalized empirical likelihood estimators (see Smith, 1997) assigns a set of probabilities to each observation such that moment conditions are satisfied. These restricted probabilities are called implied probabilities. Implied probabilities may also be constructed for the standard GMM (see Back and Brown, 1993). The proposed test statistics for structural change are based on the information content in these implied probabilities. We consider cases of structural change with unknown breakpoint which can occur in the parameters of interest or in the overidentifying restrictions used to estimate these parameters. The test statistics considered here have good size and power properties.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Brock University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0804.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2005
Date of revision: Oct 2008
Handle: RePEc:brk:wpaper:0804

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Keywords: Generalized empirical likelihood; generalized method of moments; parameter instability; structural change;

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  1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  2. Richard Smith, 2004. "GEL Criteria for Moment Condition Models," CeMMAP working papers CWP19/04, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  3. Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1015, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  4. Ghysels, E. & Guay, A. & Hall, A., 1995. "Predictive Tests for Structural Change with Unknown Breakpoint," Cahiers de recherche 9524, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  5. repec:att:wimass:9220 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Antoine, Bertille & Bonnal, Helene & Renault, Eric, 2007. "On the efficient use of the informational content of estimating equations: Implied probabilities and Euclidean empirical likelihood," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 461-487, June.
  7. Yuichi Kitamura & Michael Stutzer, 1997. "An Information-Theoretic Alternative to Generalized Method of Moments Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(4), pages 861-874, July.
  8. Yuichi Kitamura, 2001. "Asymptotic Optimality of Empirical Likelihood for Testing Moment Restrictions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1661-1672, November.
  9. Hansen, Lars Peter & Heaton, John & Yaron, Amir, 1996. "Finite-Sample Properties of Some Alternative GMM Estimators," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(3), pages 262-80, July.
  10. Guido W. Imbens & Phillip Johnson & Richard H. Spady, 1995. "Information Theoretic Approaches to Inference in Moment Condition Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0186, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  12. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  13. Donald W.K. Andrews & Christopher J. Monahan, 1990. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 942, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  14. Mehmet Caner, 2005. "Exponential Tilting with Weak Instruments: Estimation and Testing," Econometrics 0509017, EconWPA.
  15. Susanne M. Schennach, 2007. "Point estimation with exponentially tilted empirical likelihood," Papers 0708.1874, arXiv.org.
  16. Alain Guay & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2010. "Structural change tests for GEL criteria," Working Papers 1002, Brock University, Department of Economics.
  17. Whitney Newey & Richard Smith, 2003. "Higher order properties of GMM and generalised empirical likelihood estimators," CeMMAP working papers CWP04/03, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  18. Hall, Peter & Horowitz, Joel L, 1996. "Bootstrap Critical Values for Tests Based on Generalized-Method-of-Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 891-916, July.
  19. Kenneth D. West & Whitney K. Newey, 1995. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Gregory, Allan W. & Lamarche, Jean-Francois & Smith, Gregor W., 2002. "Information-theoretic estimation of preference parameters: macroeconomic applications and simulation evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1-2), pages 213-233, March.
  21. Stanislav Anatolyev, 2005. "GMM, GEL, Serial Correlation, and Asymptotic Bias," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(3), pages 983-1002, 05.
  22. Back, Kerry & Brown, David P, 1993. "Implied Probabilities in GMM Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 971-75, July.
  23. Ghysels, Eric & Hall, Alastair, 1990. "Are consumption-based intertemporal capital asset pricing models structural?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 121-139.
  24. Joaquim J.S. Ramalho & Richard J. Smith, 2005. "Goodness of Fit Tests for Moment Condition Models," Economics Working Papers 5_2005, University of Évora, Department of Economics (Portugal).
  25. Hall, Alastair R & Sen, Amit, 1999. "Structural Stability Testing in Models Estimated by Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(3), pages 335-48, July.
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