Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Anticipation and Real Business Cycles

Contents:

Author Info

  • David R.F. Love

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Brock University)

  • Jean-Francois Lamarche

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Brock University)

Abstract

Standard real business cycle (RBC) theory assumes that changes in economic conditions are unanticipated. We argue that upcoming changes are often well anticipated. Employing the RBC methodology to evaluate models when changes in economic conditions are fully anticipated provides evidence on the relevance of this alternative. We find that anticipation effects i) reduce the exogenous volatility required for the models to explain output folatility, ii) improves or leaves unchanged, the model predictions for the data moments studied and, iii) can go some way to providing realistic internal propagation mechanisms within theoretical frameworks.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: ftp://coffee.econ.brocku.ca/RePec/pdf/0703.pdf
File Function: First version, Nov. 2004
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Brock University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0703.

as in new window
Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2004
Date of revision: Sep 2007
Handle: RePEc:brk:wpaper:0703

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 500 Glenridge Avenue, St. Catharines, Ontario, L2S 3A1
Phone: (905) 688-5550 3325
Fax: (905) 988-9388
Email:
Web page: http://www.brocku.ca/economics/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Anticipation; Real Business Cycles; Impulse Responses;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. John B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig, 1990. "Solving Nonlinear Stochastic Growth Models: A Comparison of Alternative Solution Methods," NBER Working Papers 3117, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1990. "Current real business cycle theories and aggregate labor market fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 90, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  3. Michele Boldrin & Lawrence J. Christiano & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1999. "Habit persistence, asset returns and the business cycles," Working Paper Series WP-99-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  4. Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Henry E. Siu, 2000. "Growth and business cycles," Staff Report 271, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  5. Andolfatto, David, 1996. "Business Cycles and Labor-Market Search," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 112-32, March.
  6. Robert G. King & Sergio Rebelo, 1990. "Public Policy and Economic Growth: Developing Neoclassical Implications," NBER Working Papers 3338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Perli, Roberto & Sakellaris, Plutarchos, 1998. "Human capital formation and business cycle persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 67-92, June.
  8. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  9. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M, 1995. "Output Dynamics in Real-Business-Cycle Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 492-511, June.
  10. Merz, Monika, 1995. "Search in the labor market and the real business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 269-300, November.
  11. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
  12. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1996. "Factor-Hoarding and the Propagation of Business-Cycle Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1154-74, December.
  13. Sergio T. Rebelo, 1990. "Long Run Policy Analysis and Long Run Growth," NBER Working Papers 3325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  15. Simon Gilchrist & John C. Williams, 1998. "Putty-clay and investment: a business cycle analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-30, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Edward C. Prescott, 1986. "Theory ahead of business cycle measurement," Staff Report 102, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  17. Ray C. Fair & John B. Taylor, 1980. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 564, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  18. Gomme, Paul, 1993. "Money and growth revisited : Measuring the costs of inflation in an endogenous growth model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 51-77, August.
  19. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2001. "An Exploration into Pigou's Theory of Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2996, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1993. "Impulse dynamics and propagation mechanisms in a real business cycle model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 77-81.
  21. Gagnon, Joseph E, 1990. "Solving the Stochastic Growth Model by Deterministic Extended Path," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(1), pages 35-36, January.
  22. Gregory, Allan W & Smith, Gregor W, 1991. "Calibration as Testing: Inference in Simulated Macroeconomic Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(3), pages 297-303, July.
  23. Aadland, David, 2001. "High frequency real business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 271-292, October.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. David R.F. Love, 2009. "Aggregate Comovements, Anticipation, and Business Cycles," Working Papers 0908, Brock University, Department of Economics.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:brk:wpaper:0703. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jean-Francois Lamarche).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.