This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Ideology, Competence and Luck: What determines general election results?

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
John Maloney
Andrew Pickering ()

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of luck, defined as global economic growth, and competence, defined as the difference between domestic and world growth, on voting in general elections since 1960. The vote of incumbent parties of the right is found to be sensitive to luck, whereas that of incumbent parties of the left is not. This is consistent with the Clientele Hypothesis given electorates which fail to perfectly distinguish luck from competence. Economic competence plays a strong role in determining the vote, especially in high-income democracies. The electoral reward to competence is essentially equal across parties of either ideology, contra to the Saliency Hypothesis. The data are also supportive of the Territory Hypothesis, namely that greater ideological territory increases a party's relative vote share.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.efm.bris.ac.uk/economics/working_papers/pdffiles/dp08607.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK in its series Bristol Economics Discussion Papers with number 08/607.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bri:uobdis:08/607

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 8 Woodland Road, Bristol, BS8 1TN
Phone: 0117 928 8415
Fax: 0117 928 8577
Email:
Web page: http://www.efm.bris.ac.uk/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (David Demery).

Related research
Keywords: voting; ideology; luck; competence;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Models of Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Mulligan, Casey B & Hunter, Charles G, 2003. " The Empirical Frequency of a Pivotal Vote," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 116(1-2), pages 31-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Swank, O H, 1993. " Popularity Functions Based on the Partisan Theory," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 75(4), pages 339-56, April.
    Other versions:
  3. Nordhaus, William D, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2), pages 169-90, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Andrew Leigh, 2004. "Does the World Economy Swing National Elections?," CEPR Discussion Papers 485, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Holcombe, Randall G, 1980. "An Empirical Test of the Median Voter Model," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 260-74, April.
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? IDEAS also indexes software components.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-14.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.