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Demographic Change and the UK Savings Rate

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  • David Demery
  • Nigel Duck

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    Abstract

    We use microeconomic data to explore the effects of a changing age-structure on the UK's aggregate personal savings rate. Our findings suggest that changes to the population's age structure age have had detectable, sustained, but, relative to the yearly changes observed in the savings rate over the previous century, modest effects on aggregate personal sector savings. We estimate that the projected changes to the UK's age structure over the next 40 years are likely to raise the UK's savings rate but by no more than 2 percentage points. We find no basis for the view that the aggregate savings rate will decline as a result of the anticipated ageing of the UK population.

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    File URL: http://www.efm.bris.ac.uk/economics/working_papers/pdffiles/dp03550.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK in its series Bristol Economics Discussion Papers with number 03/550.

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    Length: 37 pages
    Date of creation: Feb 2003
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bri:uobdis:03/550

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    Keywords: Saving; ageing population;

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    1. Banks, James & Blundell, Richard & Tanner, Sarah, 1998. "Is There a Retirement-Savings Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 769-88, September.
    2. Tullio Jappelli & Franco Modigliani, 1998. "The Age-Saving Profile and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis," CSEF Working Papers 09, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    3. Paxson, Christina, 1996. "Saving and growth: Evidence from micro data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 255-288, February.
    4. O. Attanasio & H. W. Hoynes, . "Differential mortality and wealth accumulation," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1079-96, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
    5. Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
    6. Angus Deaton & Christina Paxson, 2000. "Growth and Saving Among Individuals and Households," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 212-225, May.
    7. Weil, David N, 1994. "The Saving of the Elderly in Micro and Macro Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(1), pages 55-81, February.
    8. Attanasio, Orazio P & Weber, Guglielmo, 1993. "Consumption Growth, the Interest Rate and Aggregation," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 631-49, July.
    9. Amy Finkelstein & James Poterba, 2004. "Adverse Selection in Insurance Markets: Policyholder Evidence from the U.K. Annuity Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(1), pages 183-208, February.
    10. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
    11. Andrew Chesher, 1997. "Diet Revealed?: Semiparametric Estimation of Nutrient Intake-Age Relationships," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 160(3), pages 389-428.
    12. Andrew Chesher, 1998. "Individual demands from household aggregates: time and age variation in the composition of diet," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(5), pages 505-524.
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    Cited by:
    1. Barry P. Bosworth & Ralph C. Bryant & Gary Burtless, 2004. "The Impact of Aging on Financial Markets and the Economy: A Survey," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College 2004-23, Center for Retirement Research.

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