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Forecast errors and monetary policy normalisation in the euro area

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  • Zsolt Darvas

Abstract

This Policy Contribution was prepared for the Nomura Foundation’s Macro Economy Research Conference- ‘Monetary Policy Normalization Ten Years after the Great Recession’, 24 October 2018, Tokyo. Financial support from the Nomura Foundation is gratefully acknowledged. We consider the lessons of the recent monetary policy normalisation experiences of Sweden, the United States and the United Kingdom, and analyse the European Central Bank’s forecasting track record and possible factors that might explain the...

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  • Zsolt Darvas, 2018. "Forecast errors and monetary policy normalisation in the euro area," Policy Contributions 28816, Bruegel.
    • Handle: RePEc:bre:polcon:28816
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Grégory Claeys & Maria Demertzis, 2017. "How should the European Central Bank ‘normalise’ its monetary policy?," Policy Contributions 22931, Bruegel.
    8. Grégory Claeys & Zsolt Darvas, 2015. "The financial stability risks of ultra-loose monetary policy," Policy Contributions 876, Bruegel.
    9. Grégory Claeys & Zsolt Darvas & Silvia Merler & Guntram B. Wolff, 2014. "Addressing weak inflation- The European Central Bank's shopping list," Policy Contributions 826, Bruegel.
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    1. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2023. "On the use of current and forward-looking data in monetary policy: a behavioural macroeconomic approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115547, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Ron Baiman, 2020. "The Impact of Rent from Unequal Exchange on Shaikh’s Classical-Keynesian Political Economic Analysis: The Example of Facebook," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 52(2), pages 239-258, June.
    3. Paul De Grauwe & Yuemei Ji, 2023. "On the use of current and forward-looking data in monetary policy: a behavioural macroeconomic approach," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(2), pages 526-552.
    4. Goodhart, C. A. E. & Pradhan, Manoj, 2023. "A snapshot of Central Bank (two year) forecasting: a mixed picture," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118680, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Kontogeorgos, Georgios & Lambrias, Kyriacos, 2019. "An analysis of the Eurosystem/ECB projections," Working Paper Series 2291, European Central Bank.
    6. Hielke Van Doorslaer & Mattias Vermeiren, 2021. "Pushing on a String: Monetary Policy, Growth Models and the Persistence of Low Inflation in Advanced Capitalism," New Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(5), pages 797-816, September.

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