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Monetary policy indeterminacy in the U.S.: results from a classical test

Author

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  • Efrem Castelnuovo

    (Università di Padova)

  • Luca Fanelli

    (Università di Bologna)

Abstract

We work with a newly developed method to empirically assess whether a specified new-Keynesian business cycle monetary model estimated with U.S. quarterly data is consistent with a unique equilibrium or multiple equilibria under rational expectations. We conduct classical tests to verify if the structural model is correctly specified. Conditional on a positive answer, we formally assess if such model is either consistent with a unique equilibrium or with indeterminacy. Importantly, our full-system approach requires neither the use of prior distributions nor that of nonstandard inference. The case of an indeterminate equilibrium in the pre-1984 sample and of a determinate equilibrium in the post-1984 sample is favored by the data. The long-run coefficients on inflation and the output gap in the monetary policy rule are found to be weakly identified. However, our results are further supported by a proposed identification-robust indicator of indeterminacy

Suggested Citation

  • Efrem Castelnuovo & Luca Fanelli, 2011. "Monetary policy indeterminacy in the U.S.: results from a classical test," Quaderni di Dipartimento 8, Department of Statistics, University of Bologna.
    • Handle: RePEc:bot:quadip:wpaper:112
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    Cited by:

    1. Fanelli, Luca, 2012. "Determinacy, indeterminacy and dynamic misspecification in linear rational expectations models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 153-163.
    2. Gunnar Bårdsen & Luca Fanelli, 2015. "Frequentist Evaluation of Small DSGE Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 307-322, July.

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